What is the concept of a ‘demographic Winter’? Is the world moving towards such a situation? Elaborate. (10 Marks) (Answer in 150 words)) (UPSC IAS Mains 2024 General Studies Paper – 1)
The term “demographic winter” refers to a situation where birth rates fall significantly below the replacement level, leading to an aging population, a shrinking workforce, and economic challenges. It symbolizes the potential “freezing” of population growth, impacting societies demographically and economically.
Causes
- Low Fertility Rates: In many developed countries, birth rates have fallen below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, leading to stagnant or shrinking populations.
- Aging Population: A higher proportion of elderly individuals increases the dependency ratio, placing stress on healthcare, pensions, and social welfare systems.
- Economic Implications: A smaller workforce can lead to reduced economic growth, labor shortages, and increased taxation burdens on younger generations.
Is the World Moving Toward Demographic Winter?
- Developed Countries: Countries like Japan, Italy, and South Korea are experiencing declining populations and low birth rates, raising concerns of demographic winter.
- Developing Countries: Some developing countries are also seeing declining fertility rates due to urbanization, education, and changing societal norms, though many still have growing populations.
While some parts of the world are heading toward a demographic winter, others, especially in regions like Africa and South Asia, continue to see population growth. Global demographic patterns are uneven, but the trend toward lower birth rates is spreading globally.
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