“The war in Afghanistan is crucial from the point of view of India's national security. If the Americans withdraw and Jihadis emerge with a sense of triumphalism, India will face increasing onslaught of terrorism." Comment. (UPSC CSE Mains 2020 - Political Science and International Relations, Paper 2).
US Withdrawal and India
- Taliban:Taliban itself remains a major variable. If the Taliban does not accommodate the interests of all Afghans, it simply sets the stage for the next round of the civil war in Afghanistan.
- The Taliban is also signalling that it will not be a proxy for anyone else and that it will pursue independent policies.
India will have three critical areas in dealing with the Taliban.
- Protecting its investments, which run into billions of rupees, in Afghanistan;
- Preventing a future Taliban regime from being a pawn of Pakistan;
- Making sure that the Pakistan-backed anti-India terrorist groups do not get supportfrom the Taliban.
India’s Approach
- The era of prolonged peace in Afghanistan secured by the US military presence has come to its end.
- This would mean new constraints on India’s ability to operate inside Afghanistan.
- Three structural conditionswill continue to shape India’s Afghan policy.
- One is India’s lack of direct physical access to Afghanistan.This underlines the importance of India having effective regional partners.
- Pakistanhas the capability to destabilise any government in Afghanistan. But it does not have the power to construct a stable and legitimate order in Afghanistan.
- The contradiction between the interests of Afghanistan and Pakistan is an enduring one.
- Pakistan likes to turn Afghanistan into a protectorate, but Afghans deeply value their independence. All Afghan sovereigns, including the Taliban, will look for partners to balance Pakistan.
- India should focus on intensifying its engagement with various Afghan groups, including the Taliban and finding effective regional partnersto secure its interests in a changing Afghanistan.
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