Could the Non-Proliferation Treaty Collapse?
Since 1960s there have been various agreements aimed at non proliferation of nuclear defense technologies. These include Partial test ban treaty(PTBT) and comprehensive test ban treaty(CTBT) which bans nuclear explosions in all environments. Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (SALT I & SALT II) and Strategic Arms Reduction Treaties (I and II) between US and Russia to reduce the existing stockpile. Further there is Nuclear Non-proliferation treaty(NPT)aimed at limiting the Nuclear defense technologies only to the P5 nations.
However, the nuclear arms have still managed to proliferate.
- Countries like India and Pakistan are known to possess nuclear weaponry.
- Israel is strongly suspected of possessing it.
- North Korea has a nuclear weapons programme but its actual possession of nuclear weapons is debated. It has, in recent times, conducted multiple missile tests, to showcase its supposed capabilities.
- Iran had more than 20,000 centrifuges, in 2015. It is believed that it had achieved 90% purity of enriched Uranium.
Reasons for the failure of Non-Proliferation mechanisms:
- Nuclear competition and Nuclear deterrence: Countries like India are forced to have their own stockpile as China has it. Similarly there is an arms race between Israel and Iran.
- Discriminatory nature of the NPT: India has always claimed that the limiting of Nuclear defence technologies to only P5 nations is discriminatory and arbitrary. An ideal way to solve this would be for all nuclear states to abandon their nuclear stockpile. This certainly hasn’t been the case.
- Rising insecurities due to expansionist tendencies: China has been warning occupation of Taiwan recently. It has often attempted incisions into Indian territories and South China sea. This has prompted India and Australia to maintain nuclear deterrence. Australia, through AUKUS, seems to be on a path to acquire nuclear capabilities for its naval fleet, in a bid to counter China
- Waning concept of deterrence among large powers - More countries are realizing that they are in charge of their own security. The belief have been confirmed by the retreat of US from Afghanistan.
- Rising Economic Insecurity: For example, The hegemonic rise of China and its debt trapping tactics in order to gain access to the other country’s key infrastructure projects has led other countries within China’s immediate sphere of geographical influence to wonder if they need to acquire or develop strategic capabilities to safeguard their security.
- Rising protectionism and strengthening chauvinism: The political figures all around the world have been using threats with right wing governments taking up the centre stag.
This gives the impression that the NPT has not been entirely successful—but it hasn’t been an abject failure either. It had signalled commitment through its actions, towards putting an end to the arms race and hopefully complete disarmament. Recently, the P5 countries released a joint statement named ‘Preventing Nuclear War and Avoiding Arms Races’ affirms to non-offensive uses of nuclear weapons and committing to the NPT agreement. Although, it might do little impact on committing reduction of stockpile, it still has a potential to restart discussions on nuclear disarmament which have practically halted since 2005.
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