In recent years, China has undergone a rapid rise as a global power, both economically and militarily. This rise has had significant implications for the international system and the balance of power among states.

Factors contributing to China''s rise as a global power

• Economic Power: China''s economic power has grown significantly in recent years. The country''s GDP has grown at an average annual rate of approximately 10% since 1978.
  • This has made China the second-largest economy in the world, behind only the United States. China''s economic growth has been driven by a combination of factors, including a large and growing domestic market, a relatively low-cost labor force, and a focus on export-oriented manufacturing.

• Military Power: In addition to its economic power, China has also grown significantly in terms of military power. China has the largest active military in the world, and it has been investing heavily in its military capabilities in recent years.

• • It has modernized its military and developed advanced weapons systems, including aircraft carrier, stealth fighters, and aircraft drones.

• • Additionally, China has been expanding its global presence through its Belt and Road Initiative, which aims to connect Asia, Europe, and Africa through a network of infrastructure projects.

• Proactive Diplomacy: The third factor is its diplomatic efforts, China has been actively engaging in diplomacy, building alliances and partnerships, and working to shape the global order in its favor.

• • This has included efforts to strengthen relations with other countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, as well as working to establish itself as a major player in international organizations such as the United Nations.

Implications of rise of China

      The rise of China''s economic power has had significant implications for the international system. For example, China is now the largest trading partner of many countries, including the United States.

• The United States and China both see South Asia as important, although neither considers the region its top geopolitical priority. They consider other areas, such as East Asia, more central to advancing their interests. Still, they recognize that South Asia’s strategic geography and growing population, along with nuclear and terrorism risks, merit sizable allocations of attention and resources. South Asia is a key area in regard to Washington’s goal of building a free and open Indo-Pacific, and Beijing’s of revising the Eurasian political and security order and becoming the leading power in Asia. The emerging period of Sino-American strategic competition, which could last for decades, is likely to influence both the U.S. and Chinese assessments of and engagements in South Asia.
• U.S.-China bilateral competition and confrontation make cooperation in South Asia, including during major crises, substantially more difficult. Both countries nominally have a mutual interest in countering violent extremism, ensuring strategic stability and crisis management between India and Pakistan, and promoting regional economic development. Yet bilateral tension and mutual suspicion about each other’s activities in the region restrict the prospects for sustained cooperation beyond rhetoric. On crisis management, nonproliferation, and terrorism in particular, differing viewpoints about culpability—China mostly taking Pakistan’s side and the United States often agreeing with India—will also make joint efforts difficult to agree on and implement. On Afghanistan, China and the United States have common goals of stopping the spread of international terrorism and reaching a political settlement to bring an end to decades of violent conflict, though how they try to achieve these goals differs in practice. Further, Chinese atrocities targeting Uyghurs and other ethnic minority groups in Xinjiang, carried out in the name of countering terrorism, severely restrict possibilities for productive counterterrorism cooperation until Beijing changes its approach to align with global human rights norms.
• The China-Pakistan axis is strengthening, which has a detrimental effect on governance and economic reform efforts in Pakistan given the concomitant lack of transparency and accountability. Chinese-funded development projects are hardly the sole cause of problems in Pakistan, but BRI projects, in working outside established standards, can exacerbate underlying weaknesses in governance and contribute to an already unsustainable debt load. Although it wants to avoid taking on the burden of Pakistan’s problems, Beijing is also heavily invested in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) as the potential crown jewel of the BRI and an overland transit route to the Indian Ocean. The CPEC faces many obstacles and its visions remain largely unfulfilled, but China’s commitment remains durable, particularly given the reputational risks of letting the BRI’s flagship corridor fail and Beijing’s increasing determination to balance India. The relationship is also buoyed by military ties and diplomatic support, which further entrench the army’s role in Pakistan’s government and strengthen illiberalism within Pakistan.
• China’s approach toward India-Pakistan disputes increasingly favors Pakistan rather than adopts a more neutral stance, in part because backing Pakistan helps China constrain Indian power in Asia. Especially in the last year, China has doubled down on its support for Pakistan’s position on Kashmir. Historically, Beijing’s position has ranged from constructive neutrality to active support for Pakistan. Some worry that China might even abet Pakistan in future crises to pressure India and to advance Beijing’s territorial claims. Meanwhile, the United States has mostly backed India’s position in flare-ups along the Line of Control and New Delhi’s responses to terrorist attacks in India traced to Pakistan. Overall, Beijing has only weak incentives to support comprehensive India-Pakistan conflict resolution. Keeping the situation at a low boil serves Beijing’s aims better by forcing India to divide its resources and attention and to fear the specter of a two-front war. China’s support for Pakistan’s territorial claims also bolsters its own. For its part, Pakistan gains the support of a powerful partner in China as well as development financing that Islamabad’s shaky economic situation and political instability would otherwise make nearly impossible, barring major governance reforms.
• The Sino-Indian border area will continue to be a major flash point. The summer 2020 border crisis and deaths of twenty Indian and an unknown number of Chinese troops in Ladakh put New Delhi’s challenge of balancing cooperation and competition in stark relief and will limit China’s ability to pursue opportunities in India for years. China and India are unlikely to make progress on any final resolution of their border disputes in the near or medium term. Effective protocols for border patrol operations and crisis management can help mitigate tensions but will not stop flare-ups altogether. China’s propensity for “gray zone” provocations and the prominence of territorial issues in both countries’ politics mean a process to delimit and demarcate the border would face huge obstacles.
• China-India relations will become more competitive, and the pair, Asia’s two biggest powers, will struggle to cooperate throughout the Indo-Pacific region. Beijing wants to expand its influence in South Asia for its own sake and to force India to devote time and resources to its neighborhood rather than to project influence into East Asia. For its part, New Delhi worries about encirclement by Beijing. China seeks access to India’s large domestic market and potential for economic growth. To drive economic cooperation, China has relied on leader-level engagement, direct investments, and low-cost consumer and industrial goods. However, recent Indian moves to restrict access for Chinese firms, particularly in the technology industry, show deepening concerns about the economic, political, and security effects of engagement with China and a determination to avoid dependency on Beijing. Policymakers in New Delhi will continue to seek new leverage in bilateral relations and resist further erosion of India’s traditionally dominant position in South Asia, although the economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic poses a major challenge.
• China’s growing focus on a blue-water navy and power projection to the “far seas” has followed its economic interests. The Indian Ocean is currently a “far sea” for China, but China aims to make it more of an intermediate one. This enhancement of global reach would be akin to the second island chain in East Asia, the end goal being to project influence all the way to Europe. Over time, China’s geopolitical objective may expand to matching or supplanting the United States and India as the most capable maritime force in the Indian Ocean region. That eventuality raises concerns about freedom of navigation in the Indian Ocean given China’s rejection of conventional interpretations of international maritime law and generally assertive behavior in the South and East China Seas. Moreover, People’s Liberation Army forces could develop the ability to block the flow of U.S. and allied forces into East Asia during a conflict.
• Smaller South Asian states—which have their own interests and the agency to pursue them—both face competitive pressures to align with powerful states and have more opportunities to play major powers off one another. The fluid contest for influence among and between South Asian states makes it difficult for Washington to maintain good relations with countries across the entire region simultaneously. To some extent, countries such as Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh see engagement with China as a hedge against Indian dominance. They will not welcome U.S. overtures viewed as a proxy for Indian interests. India is historically wary of U.S. bilateral cooperation with neighboring states, but transparency and coordination have improved in conjunction with an overall improvement in U.S.-India relations. South Asian states are also using the U.S.-China rivalry to avoid criticism of their own authoritarian or antidemocratic excesses by threatening to deepen ties with Beijing.
• Smaller South Asian states place a premium on economic development, and China offers an enticing option but is not necessarily the top choice. Considerations about the risks and rewards of projects carried out under the auspices of the BRI are complex. On the one hand, accelerated project timelines and minimal oversight can provide local leaders with rapid and visible progress they can take credit for—sometimes lining their pockets in the process. On the other hand, those projects provide Beijing with major levers of influence, sometimes carry risks to sovereignty, and often add to already heavy public debt burdens. Political calculations play a major role as well. China’s appeal lies in offering development financing where the strings attached are related to Beijing’s concerns, such as political issues like Hong Kong, contracting with Chinese firms, adopting Chinese standards, and gaining strategic access. Otherwise, Chinese development offerings are agnostic or welcoming toward illiberal governments and come with few if any requirements related to transparency, anticorruption, human rights, or environmental and social sustainability. Those arrangements are designed to contrast with the liberalizing conditions that accompany Western development assistance. To the extent that China’s infrastructure investment spurs regional integration in a transparent way and at a sustainable cost, it can be a genuine common good. At the same time, however, debt distress will be a major concern across the region, particularly given the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. South Asian nations will be looking for options and relief from China, the United States, and multilateral financial institutions. Debt suspension measures that G20 states, including China, recently committed to provide a good start. But monitoring implementation details will be crucial, and additional actions will likely prove necessary to ensure South Asian economies can avoid the worst potential outcomes.
• China seeks stability in Afghanistan to deny safe havens for anti-China violent extremist groups but refrains from intervening directly to achieve that goal. Similarly, Beijing supports the ongoing peace process but focuses on aligning its efforts with other major powers and regional players, including Russia, Pakistan, and the United States. Chinese efforts have been confined to supporting, mediating, and facilitating rather than taking on a strong leadership role in achieving, sustaining, and enforcing peace. Beijing favors a peace process and political resolution to the conflict. China is also willing to make substantial investments in Afghanistan and help generate a peace dividend, but Beijing’s willingness depends on improvements in the security situation.

The rise of China as a global power has had significant implications for the international system. China''s economic and military power has grown significantly in recent years, and this has affected the balance of power among states. Countries are increasingly dependent on China for trade and investment, and China''s military expansion has been a source of concern for many countries. As China continues to grow in power, it will be important for countries to work together to ensure a stable and peaceful international system.