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Context
- India’s traditionally balanced and nuanced foreign policy is facing a severe crisis.
- Rising tensions such as the China-Pakistan alliance and Israel-Iran conflict challenge India’s diplomatic assumptions.
- There is a need to analyze the crisis, critique recent policy choices, and propose strategic recalibrations.
Multiple Dimensions of the Current Crisis in India’s Foreign Policy
1. Breakdown of Strategic Equilibrium
- India’s policy aimed to balance diverse global relationships.
- Trump’s return to U.S. politics with an unpredictable “Make America Great Again” stance complicates Indo-U.S. ties.
- Trump’s claim of mediating India-Pakistan ceasefire—denied by India but supported by Pakistan’s military—creates diplomatic tensions with the U.S.
2. Strategic Ambiguity in West Asia Failing
- India’s equidistant policy between Israel and Iran is collapsing amid escalating Israel-Iran conflict.
- U.S. use of advanced weaponry (GBU-57 bunker buster) against Iran marks dangerous normalization of nuclear discourse.
- India’s vague, neutral stance reduces its diplomatic relevance and risks alienating both Israel and Iran.
3. Neutrality Viewed as Liability
- India’s non-alignment policy is increasingly seen as indecision or weakness.
- India’s limited global support during India-Pakistan conflict reveals the limits of neutrality.
- Despite Global South leadership aspirations, India has few reliable allies in crises.
The China Factor
1. China-Pakistan Nexus as a Growing Threat
- Deepening military-strategic ties, including advanced Chinese weapons supplied to Pakistan.
- This partnership aims to contain India’s regional influence, posing a complex security challenge.
2. China’s Strategic Vision
- China’s National Security white paper emphasizes intertwined development and security, focusing on technology and supply chain security.
- India must carefully study China’s evolving strategic doctrines beyond obvious military threats.
The Way Forward
1. Lessons from Global Military Strategy
- India needs a thorough review of its defense preparedness, inspired by the Russia-Ukraine war and UK defense audits.
- Prioritize ammunition reserves, cyber and electronic warfare, AI, drone defense, and loitering munitions.
- Move away from reactive to proactive strategies in hybrid warfare environments.
2. Recalibrating India’s Foreign Policy
- Move beyond moralistic restraint calls to actively shape regional security narratives.
- Deepen security partnerships with Western, Asian, and African countries via mutual defense, intelligence sharing, and tech cooperation.
- Enhance credible hard power and diplomatic presence in key regions like West Asia and Indo-Pacific.
Conclusion
- India’s reliance on neutrality and non-alignment has made it strategically vulnerable and sidelined.
- Facing an aggressive China-Pakistan axis, an unpredictable U.S., and shifting regional dynamics, India must adopt strategic realism.
- A clear understanding of global power shifts and recalibrated defense and diplomacy are vital for India’s sovereignty and global stature.
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