Introduction: India''s Overestimation of Influence

• Self-Criticism: India often engages in self-criticism when events in its neighborhood don''t align with its expectations. This is partly because India tends to overestimate its influence on neighboring countries'' internal developments.
• Reality Check: Despite its ambitions, India sometimes faces limits in its capacity to shape outcomes, particularly in complex and rapidly changing political environments.

Transformative Period (2008-2010)

1. Bangladesh (2008-2010):
   • Return to Democracy: In December 2008, after years of military rule under General Moeen U. Ahmed, Sheikh Hasina became Prime Minister of Bangladesh in 2009. This transition was supported by India, particularly through the quiet diplomatic efforts of then External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee.
   • India-Bangladesh Relations: Over the next 15 years, India and Bangladesh developed a strong partnership, with Bangladesh displaying sensitivity to India’s core interests.
2. Sri Lanka (2009):
   • Defeat of LTTE: The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), a militant organization, was defeated after 33 years, largely due to India’s sustained engagement with Sri Lanka. This victory allowed India to pursue closer relations with a unified Sri Lanka.
   • India’s Role: India''s role in this process was significant but has not been widely acknowledged. The removal of the LTTE''s threat allowed India to focus on deepening ties with Sri Lanka.
3. Maldives (2008-2010):
   • Democratic Transition: After 30 years of autocratic rule under President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, the Maldives held its first multi-party democratic elections in 2008, leading to Mohamed Nasheed becoming President.
   • India’s Stabilizing Role: India supported this democratic transition and continued to assist the Maldives in stabilizing its fledgling democracy. Despite political instability, the Maldives has seen three different Presidents over the past 16 years, reflecting a maturing democracy.
4. Myanmar (2010):
   • End of Military Rule: In 2010, Myanmar held elections after two decades of military rule. The military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) won, and Daw Aung San Suu Kyi was released from house arrest.
   • India’s Engagement: India’s engagement with Myanmar was instrumental in these developments, leading to subsequent landslide victories for Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) in 2015 and 2020.
5. Pakistan (2008):
   • Civilian Government: Pakistan elected a civilian government in 2008, resulting in the exile of President Pervez Musharraf. This transition raised hopes for democratic stability in Pakistan.

India’s Expanding Influence (2008-2010)

• Development Assistance: Between 2008 and 2010, India significantly increased its development assistance to its neighbors, marking a period of active diplomacy and support.
  • Sri Lanka: India contributed to the rebuilding of northern Sri Lanka, providing essential support in the post-war period.
  • Bangladesh: India extended its largest-ever line of credit at the time—$1 billion—to Bangladesh, enhancing connectivity and infrastructure.
  • Myanmar: India funded various connectivity projects in Myanmar, fostering closer ties with its eastern neighbor.
  • Maldives: India provided budgetary support to the Maldives, helping stabilize its new democracy.
• Competing with China: For once, India could effectively counter China’s “chequebook diplomacy” by matching or exceeding China’s financial commitments in the region.

Challenges and Setbacks (2021-2024)

1. Bangladesh (2024):
   • Collapse of Hasina Government: In August 2024, Sheikh Hasina’s government collapsed due to a combination of economic downturns, democratic deficits, and violent student protests. India’s failure to engage sufficiently with Bangladesh’s opposition and to anticipate these developments was a significant oversight.
   • India’s Misjudgment: India’s close ties with Hasina’s government may have blinded it to the emerging challenges, resulting in a lack of preparation for the government’s downfall.
2. Sri Lanka (2022):
   • Aragalaya Protests: In 2022, mass protests led by an irate public and youth, known as the “Aragalaya,” forced President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee the country. The protests were primarily driven by economic hardships and government mismanagement.
   • India’s Response: While India did not foresee these protests, it acted swiftly in the aftermath by providing a $4 billion bailout package, which helped stabilize Sri Lanka’s economy. India’s engagement across the political spectrum in Sri Lanka positioned it well for future relations, regardless of who comes to power.
3. Maldives (2024):
   • Unexpected Election Results: India was caught off guard by the electoral victory of President Mohamed Muizzu in 2024, having failed to engage with him beforehand.
   • Learning from Mistakes: India is now attempting to rebuild relations with the new Maldivian leadership, drawing lessons from its earlier missteps in Bangladesh.
4. Myanmar (2021):
   • Military Coup: The military took control of Myanmar again in February 2021, despite the NLD’s landslide victory in the 2020 elections. The situation in Myanmar has since deteriorated, with ongoing conflict threatening to spill over into India’s northeastern states.
   • India’s Dilemma: India faces a difficult choice between continuing its engagement with the military to safeguard its security interests or supporting the opposition forces, including ethnic groups seeking greater autonomy.
5. Afghanistan (2021):
   • Taliban Takeover: The Taliban regained control of Afghanistan in August 2021 after the withdrawal of U.S. forces. India had anticipated this outcome and warned the U.S., but was excluded from direct engagement with the Taliban.
   • India’s Position: With the U.S. focusing on Pakistan, India has been left to navigate its relationship with the new Taliban regime independently, focusing on protecting its geopolitical interests.
6. Pakistan (2022):
   • Government Toppling: Pakistan’s civilian government was overthrown in 2022, likely orchestrated by the military. This continued the pattern of political instability in Pakistan, with the military maintaining significant control.

 India’s Strategic Responses

• Successes and Failures: India’s responses to these crises have been a mix of successes and missteps. While India effectively supported Sri Lanka during its economic crisis and is working to repair relations with the Maldives, it has struggled with more complex situations in Bangladesh and Myanmar.
• Developmental Diplomacy: India’s developmental projects have played a crucial role in maintaining influence. For example, even during the Taliban’s reign, Indian projects in Afghanistan were largely untouched because they benefitted the local population.
• Building Relationships: India’s strategy of engaging with political actors across the spectrum, as seen in Sri Lanka and the Maldives, has helped it maintain influence regardless of changes in leadership.

 Conclusion: The Need for Sustained Engagement

• Complex Regional Dynamics: The political dynamics in India’s neighborhood are increasingly complex, with democratic processes facing significant challenges. India’s influence is not as strong as it once perceived, requiring a more nuanced approach.
• Future Strategies: India must engage more deeply and consistently with its neighbors, supporting democratic forces where possible while being pragmatic in dealing with non-democratic regimes. A focus on development and infrastructure projects remains key to maintaining influence.
• Adapting to Change: India needs to adapt to the rapidly changing political landscape in its neighborhood, ensuring that it remains a key player while acknowledging the limits of its power. Sustained, strategic engagement, rather than episodic interventions, will be crucial for India’s long-term influence in the region.