The Global Nuclear Order (GNO), an intricate framework created during the tense periods of the Cold War, has notably withstood the test of time, maintaining a delicate balance in international relations and nuclear deterrence. However, this enduring order now finds itself under significant strain.

Global Nuclear Order (GNO)

• GNO refers to the framework, rules, and agreements governing global use and proliferation of nuclear weapons.
• Example: Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) aims to prevent nuclear spread and promote disarmament.

Significance of GNO:

• Preventing Proliferation: Focuses on restricting the widespread acquisition of nuclear weapons by states.
• Ensuring Stability: Arms control negotiations have aimed to achieve strategic parity and foster stability in the arms race, as well as enhance crisis management since 1945.

Key Components of GNO:

1. Non-Proliferation: Efforts to prevent additional states from acquiring nuclear weapons.
2. Disarmament: Initiatives aimed at reducing and eliminating global nuclear arsenals.
3. Nuclear Material Security: Measures to protect nuclear materials and facilities from threats like theft or sabotage.
4. Peaceful Use of Nuclear Energy: Promoting nuclear technology for non-military purposes like electricity, medicine, and industry.
5. International Agreements and Treaties:

1. Frameworks establishing norms and regulations for nuclear activities.

1. Includes NPT, Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), etc.

1. International Organizations and Agencies:

1. Bodies like the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) overseeing and promoting nuclear safety and security.

Global Nuclear Security Architecture

Important GNO treaties

Current Status of GNO

• According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI):
• There are nine nuclear-armed states, including key players like the US, Russia, and China, that are modernizing and expanding their nuclear arsenals.
• The total global inventory of warheads is approximately 12,512, with around 9,576 warheads in military stockpiles.
• Nuclear capabilities remain predominantly with Russia and the US, holding nearly 90% of all nuclear weapons.

Issues/Concerns with Current GNO

• Shift from Bipolarity to Multipolarity: The emergence of China as a significant nuclear power, transitioning from the erstwhile bipolar global structure.
• Changes in U.S.-Russia Treaties: The US has withdrawn from key treaties like the ABM and INF, with uncertainties lingering around the New START Treaty.
• New Nuclear Peer Rivals: The US now faces two nuclear peer rivals in Russia and China, with additional complexities due to the Ukraine conflict.
• Shifts in Technology: Advances in nuclear technology and instances of partiality, as seen in the AUKUS submarine deal, are causing concern among the NPT community.
• Changing Perspective: Nations like South Korea and Japan are reassessing their nuclear policies, with some considering establishing their own nuclear deterrents.
• Arms Control: There are significant challenges in enforcing existing agreements like the NPT and a noticeable lack of progress in disarmament initiatives.
• Modernization and Technology: The relentless modernization of nuclear forces, inclusive of new and potentially destabilizing technologies.
• Emerging Threats and Actors: The danger posed by non-state entities or isolated nations obtaining nuclear materials or technology is a growing concern.

India’s Position on the Global Nuclear Order:

• Nuclear Disarmament: India champions for complete nuclear disarmament within an established timeline.
• No First Use Doctrine (NFU): Formally adopted in January 2003, it states nuclear weapons would be used only in retaliation to a nuclear attack on Indian territory or forces. There are indications from the Indian Defence Minister that this policy might be subject to future changes.
• Global Disarmament Advocacy: India promotes global nuclear disarmament while striving to be acknowledged as a responsible nuclear state.
• Stance on NPT and CTBT: India remains outside the NPT and CTBT frameworks, perceiving them as biased.
• Nuclear Arsenal Expansion: India is expanding and modernizing its nuclear capabilities, which prompts discussions on regional balance, particularly considering the strained relations with Pakistan and strategic competition with China.
• Regional Nuclear Dynamics: The nuclear relationship with Pakistan is complex and pivotal. China’s expanding nuclear capabilities influence India’s nuclear strategy.

Way Forward

• Comprehensive Approach: To enhance the Global Nuclear Order, a multidimensional strategy encompassing diplomacy, technology, governance, and global cooperation is essential.
• Encouraging Disarmament: Push for significant and verifiable cuts in nuclear arsenals.
• Strengthening Non-Proliferation: Reinforce efforts to prevent nuclear proliferation.
• Inclusive Dialogue: Engage all relevant parties in conversations on nuclear issues.
• Monitoring Technologies: Keep a vigilant eye on new technologies that could pose risks.
• Supporting New Treaties: Back initiatives like the TPNW and involve nuclear states in talks for a disarmament framework.
• India''s Role: India should aim for regional stability through dialogue with Pakistan and China, while ensuring secure management of its nuclear resources.

The effectiveness of the global nuclear order relies on the convergence among key powers and the perception of its benefits as a global public good. A collaborative, transparent, and mutually responsible approach is crucial for fostering a stable and equitable nuclear regime.