Context

India’s Prime Minister recently raised concern over the country’s excessive dependence on foreign powers, identifying it as a major strategic vulnerability. Although India aspires to maintain strategic autonomy and pursue a policy of multi-alignment, the reality reveals a significant strategic and multi-dependence on global powers—particularly China, Russia, and the United States. This dependence, spread across key sectors like manufacturing, energy, defence, and trade, constrains India’s foreign policy choices and limits its manoeuvrability in a complex geopolitical environment.

India’s Dependence on Major Powers

1. Dependence on China: India’s economic interlinkage with China extends deeply into manufacturing, infrastructure, and technology supply chains.

• Manufacturing and Consumer Goods: India is heavily reliant on China for essential components such as mobile phone parts, white goods, and computers.
• Pharmaceutical Sector: A critical dependence exists on China for Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) and precursor chemicals vital to India''s drug production.
• Energy and Green Technologies: Imports include rare earth elements, polysilicon, wafers, and solar cells, which are indispensable for India’s renewable energy goals.
• Infrastructure Inputs: Key materials like fertilisers and specialised machinery (e.g., tunnel-boring machines) are sourced from China.
• Semiconductor Imports: India relies on China for a significant share of its semiconductor needs, further exposing technological vulnerabilities.

2. Dependence on Russia: Russia continues to be a strategic partner, especially in defence and energy, but this relationship now presents serious limitations.

• Defence Sector: Approximately 60–70% of India’s military hardware across all three services originates from Russia. This includes critical platforms such as fighter jets, tanks, submarines, and missile systems.
• Energy Ties: Crude oil imports from Russia have surged dramatically, increasing from 4% in 2022 to nearly 40% currently.
• Legacy Factor: India’s longstanding dependence on Soviet and Russian equipment since the 1970s makes a full transition away from Russian defence imports a complex and gradual process.

3. Dependence on the United States: India’s ties with the United States are robust, spanning trade, human capital, and defence cooperation.

• Economic and Talent Linkages: The US is India’s largest export destination. Moreover, Indian professionals dominate the H1-B visa category, comprising nearly 70% of all recipients. The US is also the most popular destination for Indian students abroad, rivaling the number of Chinese students.
• Defence and Technology: American military equipment and technology play a crucial role in India’s modernisation efforts. Examples include GE engines for the indigenous Tejas aircraft, as well as key imports like helicopters, assault rifles, missiles, and unmanned systems.
• Geopolitical Importance: The US is a critical partner in India’s strategy to balance China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region.

Foreign Policy Tightrope

India’s simultaneous reliance on three rival global powers severely constrains its diplomatic options:

• China: Hostile border tensions limit political space for confrontation, as economic fallout from disrupting trade ties could be severe.
• Russia: Oil and defence dependencies make it difficult for India to criticise Russia over the Ukraine conflict or its deepening ties with China and Pakistan.
• United States: Trade and technology reliance imposes limitations on how far India can assert its independent stance on issues such as US tariffs or ties with nations like Iran and Russia.

As a result, India finds its foreign policy increasingly constrained by economic and strategic entanglements that leave little room for autonomous action.

Historical Parallel

India’s present situation echoes the post-Cold War vulnerability of 1989–91, when the Soviet Union''s collapse exposed India’s overdependence on a single power bloc. That crisis became the impetus for sweeping economic reforms in 1991. Today, disruptions like Trump-era tariffs, the Ukraine war, and intensifying US-China rivalry reveal a similar fragility in India’s external dependencies.

Challenges Ahead for India

Several structural issues aggravate India’s external vulnerabilities:

• Manufacturing Stagnation: Despite averaging 7% GDP growth since the 1990s, the manufacturing sector has failed to become globally competitive.
• Commodity Deficit: India remains import-dependent for essential commodities like oil, rare earths, and pharmaceutical inputs.
• Limited Export Diversification: A large share of India’s exports is concentrated in the US market, exposing the country to demand shocks and policy shifts.
• Weak Industrial Response: Both public and private sectors have displayed limited dynamism in boosting innovation, investment, and global competitiveness.

Way Forward

To restore strategic autonomy and reduce external vulnerability, India must undertake a multi-pronged approach:

• Manufacturing Revolution: Revitalise domestic industry through a stronger push for Make in India and Atmanirbhar Bharat. High-tech sectors like electronics, defence, and semiconductors must receive special focus.
• Import and Commodity Diversification: India must reduce its reliance on China and Russia by sourcing APIs, rare earths, energy, and critical components from a broader pool of countries, including Vietnam, Australia, and African nations.
• Export Diversification: Efforts should be made to lessen dependence on the US market by expanding trade with ASEAN, Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East.
• Defence Indigenisation: Accelerate the development of indigenous platforms through R&D, public-private partnerships, and technology transfers, thereby reducing overreliance on Russian and American defence imports.
• Policy Push for Innovation: Government must create a more enabling environment for private sector-led innovation, investment, and competitiveness to enhance India’s economic resilience.

Conclusion

India’s ambition of strategic autonomy is currently undermined by its multi-dimensional dependencies on China, Russia, and the US. The current landscape offers an important opportunity—just as the 1991 crisis catalyzed economic liberalisation, today’s challenges should drive a transformative push toward industrial self-reliance and policy independence. True Atmanirbharta across critical sectors—manufacturing, defence, energy, and trade—is no longer just a developmental goal; it is a prerequisite for securing India’s foreign policy independence and long-term national security.