Syrian rebels, led by the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have claimed control of Homs, Syria’s third-largest city, in a significant blow to President Bashar al-Assad’s regime.  

• This development, amidst the ongoing civil war, has raised concerns about the future of Syria, as it faces a growing challenge from rebel factions.

Factors Shaping the Syrian Civil War

• Syria and the Civil War: 
• Historical Context: Since 1971, Syria has been ruled by the Assad family, with Hafez al-Assad serving as the authoritarian leader until his death in 2000.  
• His son, Bashar al-Assad, succeeded him, continuing the family’s grip on power. 
• Arab Spring Uprising: In 2011, amidst the wave of the Arab Spring, protests erupted against Assad’s rule.  
• Arab Spring, wave of pro-democracy protests and uprisings that took place in the Middle East and North Africa beginning in 2010 and 2011, challenging some of the region’s entrenched authoritarian regimes.  
• The grievances were manifold, including rising unemployment, economic inequality, and corruption.  
• The Assad regime, dominated by the Alawite minority(a minority Muslim sect in Syria), was accused of marginalizing the Sunni majority. 
• Civil War Escalation: Arab Spring began as peaceful protests were met with violent repression, leading to armed conflict.  
• Multiple rebel factions rose up, backed by foreign powers, all aiming to oust Assad. Ultimately led to the fall of the Assad regime in Syria. 
• Rise of  Rebel Factions: 
• Hayat Tahrir al-Sham:  The primary group responsible for capturing and controlling most parts of Syria, including Damascus, Aleppo, Homs, and Hama, is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), originally the al-Qaeda branch in Syria.  
• This group aims to establish Sunni-Islamic rule and has been a major opponent of Assad. 
• Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF): A Kurdish(Iranic ethnic group)-led militia, the SDF has been primarily focused on securing autonomy and rights for Syria’s Kurdish population.  
• While not a direct enemy of Assad, they are part of the wider opposition forces. 
• Free Syrian Army (FSA): This faction, supported by Turkey, opposes both the Assad regime and Kurdish forces, mainly due to concerns over Kurdish separatism. 
• Foreign Influence:  
• Russia and Iran: These countries have been Assad’s primary allies, providing military support and strategic backing. 
• US and Turkey: Both have supported anti-Assad factions, but Turkey’s main concern is the Kurdish influence within Syria. 
• Israel: Given Syria''s historic support for Palestine, Israel has conducted strikes against Assad’s forces, further complicating the geopolitical dynamics. 
• Fall of Assad''s Regime: Bashar al-Assad''s regime was heavily reliant on external support from key allies like Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah. Over time, however, these alliances weakened due to shifting geopolitical dynamics.  
• During the Israel-Hamas War in 2023, Israel''s airstrikes in Syria weakened Assad''s military strength. Russia diverted its focus to the war in Ukraine, and Iran scaled back its involvement after losing key personnel in Syria.

India’s Approach Towards Syria

• Historical Ties: India has long maintained friendly relations with Bashar al-Assad’s Syria, based on shared historical and civilizational ties.  
• Syria has historically been an important member of the Nehru- championed Non-Aligned Movement (NAM). 
• India''s stable relations with Syria and key Middle Eastern players are vital for countering Pakistan''s narratives in Muslim-majority nations. 
• Recent Diplomatic Engagement:  Syria, a Muslim-majority country, has consistently supported India''s position on the Kashmir issue, unlike many other Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) countries that often oppose it, particularly Pakistan. 
• India has invested in projects like the Tishreen power plant and the Hama iron and steel plant. 
• India sent humanitarian aid to Syria following an earthquake in February 2023 as part of Operation Dost (friend). 
• In late 2024, India hosted the 6th Round of India-Syria Foreign Office Consultations, reinforcing the bilateral relationship. 
• Caution Amid Crisis: India has called for a peaceful, inclusive, Syrian-led political process while emphasizing the need to preserve Syria''s unity, sovereignty, and territorial integrity.  
• It has also expressed concerns over the safety and protection of minorities, including Alawites, Druze, Kurds, and Christians, amidst the ongoing conflict. 
• The Indian Ministry of External Affairs issued a caution for Indians in Syria, advising them to leave if possible, as the situation in the capital escalated. 
• Future of India- Syria Relations: India’s ties with Syria may be shaped by Turkey, as its involvement with the Regional Militias. Additionally, Turkey''s opposition to India on matters of Kashmir and its close relations with Pakistan add another layer of complexity to their interactions. 
• US support for a post-Assad transition in Syria, along with its close strategic partnership with India, can positively influence Syria-India relations. 
• Meanwhile, Iran, a key ally of Assad, maintains a strong relationship with India, particularly in areas of economic and strategic cooperation.  
• India''s neutral stance on Syria''s internal matters can ensure diplomatic flexibility, enabling it to engage constructively with any future leadership and foster relationships based on mutual interests and regional stability. 

Implications of Syrian Rebellion

• Impact on Syria and Middle East: 
• HTS''s Influence: Despite the HTS''s claims of inclusivity toward minorities, its violent history and fundamentalist ideology raise concerns that Syria could face a future similar to Taliban-ruled Afghanistan. 
• Syria’s ethnic and sectarian diversity, including Sunni Arabs, Alawites, Kurds, Shias, and Christians, complicates efforts to unify the country under one governance model. 
• If HTS adopts a radical path like Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), it could trigger a new wave of extremism. 
• Regional Instability: The rebellion has destabilized the Middle East, affecting neighboring countries and contributing to regional tensions.  
• The involvement of various international actors has turned Syria into a battleground for proxy wars. 
• The rebellion in Syria continues to affect Kurds, especially along the Turkish-Syrian border.  
• Turkey views Kurdish groups as a security threat, and the instability could lead to increased displacement and conflict, further destabilizing the region. 
• Global Impact:  
• Humanitarian Crisis: The conflict has displaced millions of Syrians, creating one of the largest refugee crises in modern history.  
• The United Nations reports approximately 5.5 million Syrian refugees live , primarily in Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, and Europe. 
• Terrorism and Extremism: The chaos in Syria has allowed extremist groups like ISIS to gain a foothold, posing a global security threat.  
• Economic Impact: The conflict has disrupted trade routes and economic activities in the region. It has also affected global oil prices, as instability in the Middle East often leads to fluctuations in the energy market. 
• Instability in Syria could impact the Gulf region, crucial for India''s energy security and trade. 
• Human Rights Violations: The war has seen widespread human rights abuses, including the use of chemical weapons, targeting of civilians, and destruction of infrastructure. These actions have drawn international condemnation and calls for accountability. 

The fall of Assad''s regime is a pivotal moment in the Syrian Civil War, but peace remains uncertain. With HTS rising to power, Syria''s future is fraught with challenges, including foreign influence and internal divisions. India must carefully balance its historical ties with Syria while safeguarding its citizens and interests.