Context and Significance

The Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA), signed on September 17, 2025, in Riyadh, marks a notable shift in the geopolitical dynamics of Southwest Asia. The presence of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, and Field Marshal Asim Munir at the signing underscored the symbolism of a deepening bilateral alliance aimed at reshaping regional security narratives. While the agreement is being portrayed as a forward-looking strategic milestone, there remain significant concerns about its long-term viability and actual substance. To understand its implications, it is crucial to consider the historical underpinnings of Saudi–Pakistani defence cooperation, the present motivations of both nations, and the wider geopolitical impact, especially in relation to India.

A History of Uneven Saudi–Pakistani Defence Ties

·       Defence cooperation between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia has its roots in 1951, though it reached its zenith between 1979 and 1989, when approximately 20,000 Pakistani troops were deployed in Saudi Arabia. Their mission was dual: to symbolically safeguard Islam’s holiest sites and to strategically counter perceived threats from Iran and Yemen.

·       However, even during this so-called "golden decade," tensions simmered beneath the surface. Saudi authorities often viewed the Pakistani soldiers as little more than mercenaries, while Pakistani military commanders resented their subordinate status under a foreign command. Further straining the relationship was Riyadh''s insistence on excluding Shia soldiers from Pakistan’s contingents, aggravating sectarian sensitivities.

·       These underlying frictions led to a gradual withdrawal of Pakistani forces by 1990. In later crises—most notably the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and the 2015 Yemeni civil war—Pakistan refused direct military involvement, opting instead for limited roles focused solely on the defence of holy sites, avoiding entanglement in broader regional conflicts.

The U.S. as the Silent Architect

·       The trajectory of Saudi–Pakistani defence relations has historically been influenced, if not dictated, by the United States. American involvement has often shaped the boundaries and momentum of the partnership behind the scenes. Recent diplomatic developments—high-level meetings in Riyadh followed by Field Marshal Munir’s meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump—indicate that the SMDA is part of a triangular framework involving Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and the U.S.

·       Thus, the agreement cannot be analysed in isolation. Rather, it reflects Washington’s continued role in engineering regional alliances, likely aimed at balancing Iran, securing Gulf interests, and preserving influence amid shifting power equations.

Riyadh’s Rationale: Between Necessity and Compromise

From Saudi Arabia’s perspective, the SMDA emerges as a pragmatic compromise. Riyadh’s aspirations for a formal U.S. defence pact, along with access to nuclear technology and cutting-edge weaponry, have been thwarted by the instability following the 2023 Hamas-Israel conflict and the subsequent Gaza war. In this context, the defence agreement with Pakistan serves as a second-best alternative—a partner it can work with without provoking domestic religious factions or becoming embroiled in intra-Arab rivalries.

Several key considerations inform Riyadh’s strategic calculus:

• Self-Reliance in Defence: Since 1991, Saudi Arabia has managed to weather multiple security threats—including al-Qaeda terrorism, Gulf wars, and the Yemen crisis—without relying heavily on foreign troops. Its recent $100 billion arms deal with the U.S. has further strengthened domestic military capabilities.
• Nuclear Backup: Pakistan’s nuclear status adds strategic heft to the alliance, especially if Iran moves closer to developing similar capabilities. Nonetheless, any overt nuclear technology transfer from Islamabad to Riyadh remains highly improbable due to Israeli opposition and international non-proliferation norms.
• Geopolitical Constraints: Pakistan’s strategic ties with China introduce complications. For Saudi Arabia, this restricts the possibility of building an unencumbered military alliance with Islamabad, especially if those ties conflict with U.S. or regional priorities.

Islamabad’s Approach: Tactical Opportunism Over Strategic Alignment

For Pakistan, the agreement is driven less by ideological or defence convergence and more by a calculated attempt to extract short-term gains. Islamabad has no intention of fighting Riyadh’s battles—whether against Iran, Yemen, or Israel—just as it is fully aware that Saudi Arabia would not intervene in potential conflicts involving India or Afghanistan.

Pakistan’s objectives in entering this pact are largely opportunistic:

• To monetise Saudi Arabia’s security anxieties by securing economic aid, oil subsidies, and military equipment.
• To bolster favour with the United States through its role in the trilateral arrangement, using it as leverage to reduce strategic vulnerabilities vis-à-vis India.
• To boost the domestic stature of its military leadership, gaining prestige through increased training, weapons access, and geopolitical visibility.

This reveals a deep asymmetry of intent. While Riyadh is seeking strategic reassurance, Islamabad is focused on tangible benefits—monetary, political, and military.

Regional Consequences: India’s Calculated Caution

·       The agreement inevitably prompts a strategic reassessment in India, particularly given its energy security and growing defence ties with Saudi Arabia. As the world’s third-largest oil importer and second-largest trading partner of Saudi Arabia, India holds a critical position in Riyadh’s external relationships. The Indian diaspora in the Gulf, known for its professionalism and political neutrality, further reinforces this bond.

·       Since 2014, India has deepened cooperation with Saudi Arabia across sectors, including intelligence-sharing, counterterrorism, and defence. In fact, Saudi officials have made conscious efforts to balance ties with both Pakistan and India, with Riyadh recognising India’s nuclear status and regional influence.

·       Notably, reports suggest that New Delhi was kept informed of the SMDA developments, indicating Riyadh’s sensitivity to India’s strategic concerns and its desire to maintain equilibrium. For India, the agreement serves as a strategic reminder—to remain vigilant, strengthen maritime outreach across the Arabian Sea, and consolidate its position in West Asia.

Conclusion: Symbolism Over Substance

The Saudi–Pakistani Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement is, in essence, less a robust alliance and more a cautious insurance policy. Historical precedent shows that their defence relationship has often been shaped by mistrust, sectarian sensitivities, and mismatched threat perceptions. In its current form, the SMDA appears largely symbolic, providing Riyadh with minimal strategic comfort while giving Islamabad access to economic and political capital. It reflects a hedging strategy on both sides—Saudi Arabia seeking backup in a volatile neighbourhood, and Pakistan aiming to monetise its military value without making binding commitments. Whether this pact translates into real strategic depth or merely serves short-term purposes remains to be seen. For the time being, it remains a dodgy insurance policy—not a game-changing alliance.