Introduction

The swearing-in of Anura Kumara Dissanayake as Sri Lanka’s newly elected President on September 23, 2024, marked a significant turning point in the nation''s political history. This event symbolized a transition from the Colombo-centric elite''s dominance to a broader coalition of non-elite social forces, reflecting a shift in the class structure of political power.

End of Elite Dominance

Since Sri Lanka''s independence in 1948, the nation’s electoral democracy had largely favored the political dominance of Westernized elites. However, Dissanayake''s election is seen as a break from this pattern, highlighting the power of democratic processes and elections to occasionally produce significant change. His victory signals a bloodless, peaceful transfer of power and a shift towards addressing the deep-rooted corruption and cronyism that benefited privileged social classes for nearly seven decades.

Political Background and Rise of Anura Kumara Dissanayake

Dissanayake is the leader of the National People''s Power (NPP) movement, which emerged in 2019 as an electoral front for the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP). The JVP, initially a radical left-wing underground movement formed in the 1960s, aimed to achieve revolutionary socialism in South Asia, inspired by Marxism and Maoism. The movement led two unsuccessful armed insurrections in 1971 and 1987-89.

In the aftermath of the 1987-89 defeat, a new generation of JVP leaders, including Dissanayake, abandoned armed struggle and focused on electoral politics. This shift allowed the JVP to become a parliamentary party, though it remained a small opposition force in a system dominated by the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and the United National Party (UNP).

Formation and Evolution of the National People''s Power (NPP)

The NPP was formed in 2019 as a response to the JVP’s political deadlock and its desire to break the traditional two-party system. With a moderate, centrist reform ideology, the NPP aimed to be a ''third force'' in Sri Lankan politics. Despite contesting in the 2019 presidential and 2020 parliamentary elections, the NPP initially received limited success, securing only 3% of the vote and three parliamentary seats.

Catalysts for the NPP''s Rapid Rise

Two significant developments paved the way for the NPP''s rise as a major political force:

1. Economic Crisis: The COVID-19 pandemic worsened Sri Lanka’s economic situation, leading to social discontent, especially due to the government''s austerity measures prescribed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Widespread poverty and income inequality polarized the society, pushing people away from traditional elite-led parties.
2. Social Crisis and Aragalaya Movement: The 2022 Aragalaya protest movement played a crucial role in shifting the political landscape. Its demand for systemic change and anti-corruption resonated with the NPP''s reform agenda, contributing to Dissanayake’s electoral success.

Challenges Ahead for the New President

Dissanayake faces numerous challenges in consolidating his power. With only three NPP members in Parliament, he must hold early parliamentary elections to form a stable government. He is expected to form a caretaker cabinet and dissolve Parliament soon to pave the way for elections, ideally by late November 2024.

Additionally, Dissanayake’s electoral base is primarily Sinhalese, and expanding support among Tamil and Muslim minorities will be critical for building an inclusive, ethnically pluralistic government.

Economic and Governance Reforms

The new President must address the external debt crisis while promoting economic growth with social justice and equity. Reworking the austerity program agreed with the IMF will be essential to prevent further social unrest.

Moreover, Dissanayake’s commitment to eradicating corruption will be a major test of his leadership. Although institutional corruption is deeply entrenched, the new government must make meaningful efforts to purify public life and governance. The public expects ‘genuine change,’ and Dissanayake''s ability to fulfill this expectation will determine the credibility and success of his presidency.

Transformation of Sri Lanka’s Political System

Dissanayake''s victory signifies a broader transformation in Sri Lanka''s political party system. The NPP’s rise, along with the consolidation of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) as the leading opposition party, has weakened traditional elite-led parties like the UNP, SLFP, and Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). The NPP and SJB now represent two opposing poles in Sri Lankan politics, with the SJB filling the space vacated by the UNP’s decline as a mass party.

Conclusion

The election of Anura Kumara Dissanayake represents a historic shift in Sri Lankan politics, breaking decades of elite dominance. His presidency offers the potential for transformative reforms and a new political era. However, the challenges ahead—securing parliamentary support, addressing ethnic inclusivity, managing economic crises, and eradicating corruption—will determine the success of this new chapter in Sri Lankan governance.