• Although the world''s population has been growing steadily, some reports indicate that it could reach 8.5 billion people in 2030.
• However, on the contrary, Average global fertility has been consistently declining over the past 70 years.
• This is the result of speeding up the social phenomenon of demographic transition.

Global levels of fertility

• According to World Population Prospects 2022, the average number of children per woman in the reproductive age group has declined by 50%, from an average of 5 children per woman in 1951 to 2.4 children in 2020.
• It is released by United Nations population estimates and projections.
• It is prepared by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat.
• Britain took 130 years to transition from a fertility rate of five per woman in 1800 to two in 1930, whereas South Korea took 20 years from 1965 to 1985 to achieve the same.
• This shows that poorer countries seem to be speeding up the transition ladder a lot faster than the richer ones.
• As per World Population Prospectus 2022, global fertility rate fell from 3 in 1990 to 2.3 in 2021.
• Most advanced economies have their fertility rate below the replacement rate of 2.1.
• South Korea has the lowest at 1.05 children per woman.
• Sub-Saharan African countries are expected to contribute more than half the population growth after 2050 and grow through 2100. 

Indian levels of fertility

• According to the latest National Family Health Survey (NFHS), the fertility rate is projected to fall below the replacement level for the first time in 2021 to 2.0. 
• The rate has dipped 10% in just 5 years.
• At the time of Independence, India''s fertility rate was 6 children per woman.
• It took 25 years to reach 5, with the launch of the first ever family planning program in the world in 1952.
• India’s fertility further declined to 4 in the 1990s when Kerala became the first State in India to have a fertility rate below replacement level.
• As per NFHS 2021, only 5 States have a fertility rate above the replacement rate:  Bihar (3), Meghalaya (2.9), Uttar Pradesh (2.4), Jharkhand (2.3) and Manipur (2.2).
• The decrease in fertility rates is mainly due to the increase in contraceptive use, longer schooling years, better health care, and the increasing average marriage age of women.

Key Findings of NFHS 5:

• Total fertility rate: is 2.0 children per woman, which declined from 2.2 children in 2015- 16 and is currently below the replacement level of fertility of 2.1 children per woman.
• Birth intervals: The median birth interval is 33 months since the preceding birth.
• Age at first birth: The median age at first birth among women age 25-49 is 21.2 years.
• Teenage childbearing: Seven percent of women age 15-19 have begun childbearing, which is just a one percent decline from 2015-16.
• Desire for another child: About one-fourth (23%) of currently married women age 15-49 want to have another child.
• Wanted fertility rate: The wanted fertility rate is 1.6 children per woman and ranges from 0.9 children in Sikkim to 2.7 children in Meghalaya.

Positive implications of lower fertility rates

• Countries in the early stages of demographic transition experience a number of economic benefits as a large portion of the workforce moves into modern sectors with decreasing fertility.
• Lower fertility impacts women’s education positively, which in turn lowers the fertility of the next generations. 
• The spiral of lower fertility leads to a window of time when the ratio of the working-age population is higher than that of the dependent age groups. 
• The high percentage of people in the workforce has a positive impact on income and investment, as savings are higher due to less dependence.
• It will lead to lower pressure on land, water and other resources and would also contribute to achieving environmental goals.
• A rise in education and independence among women would enhance their labour participation, which could arrest the fall in labour participation up to a limit.
• Lowering unemployment through higher wages will have a positive effect on inflation, as now there is a trade-off between low inflation and low unemployment.
• There will be fall in government debt is partly due to people saving less and companies borrowing more, as well as the government running a surplus instead of a deficit.
• This situation will arise due to higher inflation.

Negative implications of lower fertility rates

• A fall in fertility rate beyond replacement level would have a negative impact on the level of economic output.
• There will be a phase where the huge working age population moves to old age, supported by fewer workers.
• Japan was the first country to experience the implications of falling fertility rates.
• The increasing dependency ratio has led to near zero GDP growth since the 1990s, and the country is facing fiscal challenges to meet rising social security costs. 
• Falling fertility could diminish the creative capacity of humankind. 
• There is need for ideas in technological advancement and productivity boost, which even artificial intelligence is still not capable of.
• An ageing population will also affect global interest rates negatively as the share of people over 50 years will form almost 40% of the population by 2100. 
• Increased pressure on governments due to a high dependency ratio. 
• Low fertility produces an age structure that creates a momentum for future population decline.
• The problem with low fertility is that it reduces population size not at all ages but only among the young.
• The decrease in fertility rate will worsen medical dependency.
• Increasing proportion of dementia, especially Alzheimer’s and other forms of morbidity, such as Parkinson’s and arthritis.

Suggestions to improve fertility decline

• Reforms in the labour market to induce more flexibility in the labour market would encourage working women to have more children and non-working mothers to enter the labour market.
• Supporting parental leave at the birth of children and encouraging the sharing of leave.
• Germany found success in boosting births through liberal labour laws, allowing more parental leave and benefits.
• Subsidizing the hospital bills
• Denmark offers state-funded IVF (In vitro fertilization) for women below 40 years, and Hungary recently nationalised IVF clinics.
• Letting employees switch to part-time work, with the right to return to full-time work.
• Providing quality, affordable child care, including after-school care.
• Poland gives out monthly cash payments to parents having more than two children.
• Russia makes a one-time payment to parents when their second child is born.
• It also reinstituted the Soviet-era ‘Mother Heroine’ title, who bore and raised more than 10 children amounting to almost a one-time payment of ₹13 lakh.
• Access to family planning counselling and technology ensures that women and men can make informed choices about reproduction.
• Reducing infant and child mortality.

The fall in fertility around the globe has been a result of decades of demographic process, and hence needs scientific and sustainable policies for mitigation. Although India’s working-age population will continue to grow for many more decades, liberal labour reforms, encouraging higher female labour force participation rate, and a higher focus on nutrition would ensure sustained labour supply and output despite lower fertility.