Detailed Summary of Myanmar’s Political Turmoil Post-2021 Coup

1. Military Coup and Resistance

• The Coup: In February 2021, Myanmar''s military (Tatmadaw) overthrew the democratically elected government led by Aung San Suu Kyi. This action was justified by the military on grounds of alleged election fraud, although these claims were widely contested.
• Public and Armed Resistance: The coup ignited massive protests and a civil disobedience movement across Myanmar. Various groups, including the People’s Defence Forces (PDFs) and established Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs), escalated their resistance. This resistance has been marked by a high degree of violence from both sides.

2. Territorial Gains by Armed Groups

• Brotherhood Alliance:
• Composition: The alliance includes the Arakan Army (AA), Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA).
• Gains: They have made significant territorial advances in Shan State, capturing key towns and military positions. The fragile ceasefire agreements have often collapsed, leading to renewed clashes. The Brotherhood Alliance has managed to hold territory and challenge the military''s control.
• Kachin Independence Army (KIA):
• Advances: The KIA has captured around 70 military posts and secured vital border trade routes with China. Their gains include strategic positions that impact both local and international trade routes.
• Arakan Army (AA):
• Territorial Control: In western Myanmar, the AA has taken control of large areas in Rakhine province, including towns near the Bangladesh border such as Buthidaung. Their control extends towards important port cities like Kyauk Phyu, Sittwe, and Ngapali.
• Strategic Importance: Kyauk Phyu is crucial for China’s Belt and Road Initiative, hosting oil and gas pipelines and a deep-sea port. Sittwe’s stability is essential for India’s Kaladan project, which aims to connect Kolkata with Mizoram via Myanmar.

3. Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) and Regional Stability

• Southern Myanmar:
• Karen National Union (KNU): The KNU has made significant inroads, almost dislodging the military from Myawaddy, a critical border town close to Thailand. Their activities disrupt military access to resources and revenue.
• Balkanization Concerns:
• Speculations: Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has suggested there are attempts to create a new sovereign state by carving territories from Bangladesh and Myanmar. However, major EAOs have refrained from declaring independence, likely due to the complex, multi-ethnic nature of Myanmar''s regions. Declaring new nation-states might provoke ethnic conflicts and complicate the existing dynamics further.

4. China’s Strategic Interests and Actions

• Dual Engagement:

• Support for the Military: China has supported Myanmar''s military diplomatically, including blocking international criticisms and supplying military equipment.
• Support for EAOs: China has engaged with several EAOs, including the Brotherhood Alliance and the United Wa State Army (UWSA). The UWSA has acted as a conduit for arms supplies to other EAOs.

• Economic and Military Interests:

• Ceasefire Facilitation: China has facilitated ceasefires between the military and EAOs, such as the Haigeng ceasefire agreement, although these have often been temporary.
• Economic Projects: China’s investments in Myanmar include the Belt and Road Initiative, with projects like the Kyauk Phyu deep-sea port and pipelines. Ensuring stability in these regions is crucial for China’s economic interests.

5. India’s Potential Role

• Federalism Experience:

• Expertise Sharing: India can offer insights into federalism, drawing from its own experiences with diverse ethnic and regional demands. This includes lessons from agreements like the Mizoram Peace Accord, which may be relevant for Myanmar’s transition to a federal democratic system.

• Infrastructure Development:

• Conflict Zones: India’s success in constructing infrastructure in conflict zones like Afghanistan demonstrates its capability to undertake significant projects in Myanmar, contributing to regional peace and stability.

Conclusion

Myanmar’s current state reflects a complex conflict with multiple actors vying for control, leading to fragmented sovereignty. For sustainable peace, Myanmar needs a new constitutional framework that incorporates federalism and democratic principles. Both regional and international actors, including India, play crucial roles in shaping Myanmar’s future.