India has faced a series of significant geopolitical challenges in its neighbourhood over the past few years, highlighting the need for a more nuanced and proactive approach in its foreign policy. These events, ranging from political upheavals to shifts in diplomatic relations, underscore the lessons India must learn to effectively navigate the complexities of South Asia.

Understanding the Series of Shocks in India''s Neighbourhood

• 2021: Myanmar experienced a military coup, and the Taliban regained control over Afghanistan, significantly altering the regional power dynamics.
• 2022: Political instability continued with the ousting of Prime Minister Imran Khan in Pakistan and the forced exile of Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa following mass protests. These events reflect the fragility and unpredictability of political systems in South Asia.
• Recent Developments: The Maldives saw a dramatic electoral shift that replaced the India-friendly Solih government, while in Nepal, political coalitions collapsed, resulting in the return of the less India-friendly Oli government. In Bangladesh, the sudden departure of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who was a key ally of India, posed a significant challenge for New Delhi.

 Lesson 1: Avoid Complacency and Strengthen Engagement

• Failure to Anticipate Political Shifts: Despite India’s significant diplomatic presence in Bangladesh, including multiple consulates and the High Commission in Dhaka, it failed to recognize the growing discontent against Sheikh Hasina’s increasingly authoritarian regime. The Awami League''s transformation into a near one-party rule, coupled with the repression of opposition and civil society, was not adequately acknowledged by India.
• Neglecting Opposition Engagement: India’s decision to align closely with the Hasina government led to a lack of engagement with the main opposition party, the BNP. This one-sided approach was exemplified by incidents such as denying BNP leaders permission to visit India and even deporting a British lawyer associated with the BNP at the Hasina government’s request. This narrow focus could have been mitigated by maintaining broader diplomatic contacts across the political spectrum in Bangladesh.

Lesson 2: Embrace Pragmatism in Diplomatic Relations

• Engaging with Adversaries: India’s diplomatic approach has had to adapt to dealing with less favorable entities, such as engaging with the Taliban despite their hostile actions against Indian missions in Afghanistan, and interacting with Sri Lanka’s Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), a party with a history of anti-Indian sentiment.
• Adjusting to Changing Political Landscapes: In the Maldives, India’s strong support for President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih backfired when his government lost the election, and India had to quickly recalibrate its approach to engage with the new Muizzu government, which had previously been cast as anti-India. This highlights the importance of flexibility and pragmatism in foreign policy.

 Lesson 3: Avoiding the Communal Lens

• Complex Religious Dynamics: India’s relationships with its neighbors cannot be simplified along religious lines. For instance, India’s difficult relations with Hindu-majority Nepal contrast with its strong ties with Buddhist-majority Bhutan and Muslim-majority Maldives.
• Impact of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA): The CAA, which fast-tracks citizenship for non-Muslims from Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, has generated significant backlash across South Asia. This policy, seen as discriminatory, has not only strained relations with the mentioned countries but also with other regional players who view it as an example of India’s overreach.
• Internal Consistency: India’s concerns for the safety of minorities in Bangladesh, particularly in the wake of Sheikh Hasina’s departure, must be balanced with actions that demonstrate a commitment to protecting minorities within India. This approach would lend credibility to India’s regional policies and concerns.

Lesson 4: Reasserting Regional Leadership and Addressing External Influences

• Countering China’s Influence: China’s increasing presence in South Asia, through trade, investment, and strategic alliances, poses a challenge to India’s traditional leadership in the region. The U.S. has also played a role in influencing regional dynamics, as seen in its stance on Bangladesh, which conflicted with India’s interests.
• Reviving Regional Mechanisms: India must work towards reviving and strengthening regional organizations such as the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), which has been sidelined due to bilateral issues with Pakistan. Additionally, India should ensure that mechanisms like the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) remain viable even as relationships with key countries like Bangladesh evolve.

 Conclusion: Addressing Regional Challenges with Long-Term Vision

• Economic and Democratic Stability: The recent political upheavals in South Asia are often fueled by economic dissatisfaction and democratic backsliding. India and its neighbors must address issues like joblessness and unequal growth, which are contributing to social unrest.
• Sustaining Democratic Values: Economic progress cannot substitute for democratic governance. Ensuring political plurality, freedom of expression, and the protection of civil liberties will be essential for long-term stability in the region.
• Forward-Looking Foreign Policy: India’s foreign policy must evolve to incorporate these lessons, aiming to build resilient relationships across the political spectrum, counter external influences without alienating neighbors, and support democratic principles both within its borders and in the region at large.