• A delimitation commission was set up in India shortly after Article 370 was repealed and Jammu and Kashmir''s special status revoked in August 2019.
• Delimitation is a process by which there are changes effected to boundaries of parliamentary/electoral constituencies, typically a long-drawn exercise, extending up to five years, done usually after the Census since the population is counted at that time. The goal of such an exercise is to ensure approximately equal number of voters in each constituency. Now as we are preparing for the next Census, and the delimitation exercise has led to several protests, it is time to revisit this debate in the context of regional disparities in the country.

Unfair to the Southern States

• Development:
  • The economic situation of Southern states has improved dramatically since the turn of the 21^stcentury. Prior to the 1990s, Northern states were outperforming Southern states in terms of income and poverty levels.
    • However, the Southern states have seen a significant increase in their economic performance in recent years, which has led to a significant reduction in poverty and an increase in income levels.
  • This economic turnaround has had a significant impact on the region and has helped to drive growth and development in the Southern states.
  • The combined Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of just three States — Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu is greater than 13 States in the East.
• Educational and Health Outcomes:
  • The previous Annual Status of Education Reports (ASER) data suggests that southern regions have performed better in terms of children being enrolled in schools and having better learning outcomes compared to their northern counterparts.
  • Further, ahigher proportion of graduates in the southern States indicates the greater prevalence of a specific set of skills.
  • For instance, in 2011, only 5% of Uttar Pradesh’s population was graduated, while in Tamil Nadu, nearly 8% of its population was graduated.
  • During the Covid-19 pandemic, Tamil Nadu has 314 testing centres for a population of 78.8 million as of December 2021 and Uttar Pradesh has only 305 Covid testing centres for a population of 235 million, which is clearly inadequate.
• Governance Factor:
  • If the educational and health outcomes are better in the southern States, this also implies that the ability to discern and the quality of decision-making must be significantly better there.
  • The expectation for better public services and high civic activism in southern states suggests that the electorate there is more likely to vote for better governance compared to the north.
• Advantages for the North:
  • Based on the population patterns, the existing distribution of parliamentary constituencies across the States is tilted in favour of populous States such as Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, while southern States like Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka have a lesser number of seats.
  • If delimitation occurs, Southern states will face a decrease in the number of seats allocated to them, compared to the northern states, during the next delimitation process.
    • Hence, during the electoral representation, it should be kept in mind that it is not the number of people, but their quality that should be the deciding factor.

Major Concerns

• Inadequate Representation:According to the 2019 research paper India’s Emerging Crisis of Representation, if the delimitation is carried out according to the 2031 Census (the earliest scheduled after 2026), Bihar and Uttar Pradesh alone would gain as many as 21 seats in total, while Tamil Nadu and Kerala together will lose 16 seats.
• Affecting the Reservations for SCs/ STs:The scheduled delimitation and reallocation of seats may result in not only a loss of seats for southern states but also an increase in power for political parties with their base of support in the north. This could potentially lead to a shift of power toward the north and away from the south.
  • The exercise will also affect the division of seats reserved for the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes (SC/ST)in each state.
• Inadequate Funding:After the 15^th Finance Commission used the 2011 Census as a basis for its recommendation, concerns were raised about southern states losing funding and representation in parliament.
  • Previously, the 1971 Census was used as the base for funding and tax devolution recommendations to states.
• Demographic Dividend: In 1976, Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, during the Emergency, suspended the revision of seats until after the 2001 Census. In 2001, the Parliament extended this freeze until the next decennial census after 2026, scheduled for 2031 as per the Constitution (84^thAmendment) Act, 2002.
  • Therefore, if Lok Sabha seats are reallocated after 2031, legislators and policy makers will have to factor in demographic and political changes in the country over the past 60 years.

Suggestions

• Establishment of a Robust Plan:Making a firm commitment to reallocating resources after 2031 without any further delays due to political or policy challenges. It would provide certainty and stability for southern states in terms of funding and representation.
• Increase in Number of Seats:The advantage of increasing the number of seats in the Lok Sabha is that Members of Parliament (MPs) would represent smaller constituencies. This would lead to more efficient governance as administrative agencies would not be burdened by a large population, allowing for faster and more effective decision making.
  • Increasing the number of seats is seen as amore politically feasible option as it is easier for politicians to agree to adding seats in certain areas or states, rather than giving up seats in areas where they have more power.
• To Maintain Existing Position:Increasing the total number of seats in Parliament could be considered to ensure that no state loses the seats it currently has. This proposal may be under consideration by the Union government.
• Adequate Representation: Reports suggest that the architects of the new Lok Sabha, being built as part of the Central Vista project, have been asked to plan for at least 888 seats in the lower house.
  • This would allow for adequate representation for all states and prevent any state from losing its current number of seats.