Background and Current Situation

It has been almost a year since the latest Gaza conflict erupted, and Israel''s military focus has now shifted to its northern border with Lebanon, primarily targeting Hezbollah. Over the past week, Israel has launched extensive bombardments on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon, killing at least 700 people and displacing over 100,000. Among the dead was Hassan Nasrallah, the long-time Secretary-General of Hezbollah.

What Triggered the Conflict?

The escalation began after Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon were hit by explosions, including pagers and walkie-talkies. In retaliation, Hezbollah launched hundreds of rockets into Israel, including a ballistic missile intercepted over Tel Aviv. Israel responded with intensified airstrikes. The U.S. and France called for a ceasefire, but Israel rejected this, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowing to continue military operations until Israel’s objectives are met, including total victory against Hamas in Gaza.

What is Hezbollah?

Hezbollah, a Shia resistance group formed in 1982 with support from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), arose in response to Israel’s invasion of Lebanon. Initially founded to oppose Israeli forces, Hezbollah has evolved into a powerful political and military entity within Lebanon. It has a political party with seats in Lebanon''s parliament, a social services wing catering to the Shia population, and a powerful military apparatus. Hezbollah’s stated goal includes resistance against Israel and the destruction of what it calls “the Zionist entity.” Despite being labeled a terrorist organization by Israel and the U.S., Hezbollah retains significant influence in Lebanon, with widespread support from parts of the Shia community and continued backing from Iran.

Why Are Israel and Hezbollah Fighting?

The conflict between Hezbollah and Israel stems from Hezbollah’s anti-Israel stance, which has been central to its identity since its formation. It has been credited with forcing Israel to withdraw from southern Lebanon in 2000 after 18 years of occupation. The current escalation can be traced back to the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, in which 1,200 Israelis were killed. In response to Israel''s retaliatory strikes on Gaza, Hezbollah began firing rockets into Israel in solidarity with Hamas. This led Israel to strike back, initiating a protracted conflict along the Israel-Lebanon border.

Military Capabilities of Hezbollah

Hezbollah possesses a vast array of weaponry, including Fateh ballistic missiles (range of 250 km), Sayyad surface-to-surface missiles (100 km), C-802 anti-ship missiles (120 km), anti-tank missiles, artillery rockets, and tens of thousands of short-range missiles. Despite these, it is not a match for Israel in terms of conventional military power. Israel, backed by the U.S. and widely believed to have nuclear capabilities, is the most powerful military in the region. However, Hezbollah’s guerrilla warfare tactics and asymmetric strategies have historically posed a significant challenge to Israel.

Since the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war, Hezbollah has significantly rebuilt its military capacity, but it has so far limited its response to Israel’s recent attacks. The assassination of Nasrallah marks a severe blow to Hezbollah’s leadership, as he was instrumental in shaping the organization’s current structure and power.

Israel’s Objectives

Israel has been waging war in Gaza for nearly a year but has not yet achieved its stated goals: the destruction of Hamas and the release of hostages held in Gaza. More than 40,000 Palestinians have been killed, and Gaza has been devastated, but without a clear victory, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is unable to end the conflict without jeopardizing his political standing, particularly with far-right allies who oppose any ceasefire with Hamas.

Hezbollah has maintained that as long as the war in Gaza continues, it will continue to launch rocket attacks on Israel. This puts Israel in a difficult position: while Netanyahu seeks to end Hezbollah''s attacks, he cannot afford to agree to a ceasefire with Hamas. Faced with no simple solution, Israel has chosen to escalate its actions against Hezbollah, targeting its leadership and military capabilities. The recent escalation is seen as an attempt by Israel to weaken Hezbollah and force it away from the border regions.

The Future of the Conflict

Israeli leadership has ruled out a ceasefire on the Lebanese front, and it remains unclear whether a ground invasion of Lebanon is forthcoming. Israel is faced with the challenge of Hezbollah being far more powerful and capable than Hamas. Neither side appears to be deterring the other, leading to a dangerous cycle of escalation.

The killing of Hassan Nasrallah could be the pivotal moment that pushes Hezbollah to escalate the conflict further, potentially leading to an all-out war. The choices Hezbollah makes in the coming days—whether to regroup and continue fighting or fold under pressure—will significantly impact whether the region descends into a broader conflict involving not just Lebanon and Israel but potentially Iran and other regional players as well.