Is India Poised to Lose Influence in Afghanistan?
Recently, the Pentagon Press Secretary has said that India has played a constructive role in Afghanistan in the past in terms of training and other infrastructure improvements.
Importance of India’s soft power in Afghanistan
- Infrastructural Investment by India: India’s years of investments in infrastructure and grassroots development could act as a building block for cementing relations with the new regime in the coming years.
- India’s total development assistance over the years has been worth over $3 billion.
- Development partner of Afghanistan: India has established itself over the last two decades as a reliable development partner, having largely delivered on its envisioned projects.
- Community-driven projects in Afghanistan: The soft power of India has helped build goodwill and greater people-to-people contact and has involved measures focusing on health, education, capacity development and food security, among others.
- Promotion of Triangular Cooperation: India had also engaged in triangular cooperation under the US umbrella, cooperating with USAID on various programmes like the Afghan Women’s Empowerment Programme.
- It is a collaboration between USAID and the Self-Employed Women’s Association (SEWA) for providing vocational education for Afghan women.
- Demand-driven approach by India: It implies that the sectors for investment are chosen by the recipient government.
- India is currently the fifth-largest donor in Afghanistan and the latter is also among the top five recipients of India’s external assistance.
- Public Private Partnership in Afghanistan: A study by the Stimson Centre found out that even though Indian aid in 2015-16 totalled $1.36 billion, in PPP terms it could be pegged at over $5 billion.
- Indian investment has not only been significant but also extremely valuable and economical over the years, for Afghanistan.
Challenges Ahead of India in its interest in Afghanistan
- Security Threat for India: The diplomats and analysts say that for India, the power shift in Kabul almost certainly means the painful loss of a fellow democracy.
- It could also mean a loss of safety and security for India, if militants from its neighbor and archrival, Pakistan, expand training bases into Afghanistan.
- Developing new contact in Afghanistan: India has to figure out who its new contact is in Kabul and India reportedly has had communications with the Taliban but Afghanistan's ambassador to New Delhi has had none yet with the militant group.
- Uncertain future for Indian projects in Afghanistan: India secured waivers from U.S. sanctions to build the $8 billion Chabahar port in Iran, hoping it could be a key trade route to Afghanistan that bypasses Pakistan.
- India was also part of a consortium planning a 4,400-mile rail network linking Afghanistan with Europe.
- India's fears grow over China's influence in Afghanistan: China has been building a giant global infrastructure network including roads, pipelines, power plants and ports, called the Belt and Road Initiative.
- The ascendance of China in Afghanistan will try to unify the entire region — minus, of course, India," Jacob says. "This will also sort of strengthen the fears in India that there is an actual Chinese encirclement taking place.
- Pakistani Influence in Afghanistan: The nexus between the Taliban (especially the Haqqani group) and the ISI underscores Pakistan’s increasing influence within the country.
- The Taliban leadership may not always see eye to eye with the Pakistani state and the ISI, but the ISI’s influence over the Taliban is undeniable.
What should be India’s Foreign Policy in Afghanistan?
- Focus on infrastructure deficit in Afghanistan: India needs to further diversify its portfolios as far as development cooperation is concerned and should aim at strengthening terms of trade between India and Afghanistan, considering the latter’s trade deficit.
- Development of Climate Resilient Afghanistan: India should do much to build a more resilient Afghanistan with respect to climate change and disaster risk reduction with it spearheading global campaigns like CDRI.
- Broader Diplomatic Engagement: India should consider appointing a special envoy dedicated to Afghan reconciliation.
- The envoy can ensure that Indian views are expressed at every meeting, broaden engagement with the Afghan government and other political actors, and reach out to certain Taliban representatives.
- Continued Training and Investments: India should provide more military training to Afghan security forces and invest in longer-term capacity-building programs.
- It should actively support and invest in the National Directorate of Security.
- Working With and Through Others: India should look to broaden its engagements with Iran and Russia, explore opportunities for cooperation with China, and find common ground with the United States on Afghanistan’s future.
Road ahead
- India needs to establish itself as a neutral entity that is keen on the development of the region but ready to work with all parties concerned.
- It is time for such ambition to be tested in Afghanistan which will mean taking risks, assessing costs, and expecting failures, but it will also mean doing everything possible to address very real challenges in a country that readily signed a Treaty of Friendship with India.
- India should remain invested and leverage emerging opportunities, reworking ties with Iran, CAR, Russia and synergizing with the US rear guard actions.
- India has a deep and abiding interest in Afghanistan, not only because of the civilizational links between the two countries, but also Afghanistan serves as India’s transit to the geopolitically important and resource rich Central Asia through the Chabahar port.
- India has to maintain its relevance in the Afghan peace process by shedding its traditional reluctance to talk to the Taliban.
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