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Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau (AAIB): India’s Aviation Accident Authority Explained
Recent Case: Air India AI 171 Crash
One month after the tragic crash of Air India flight AI 171 in Ahmedabad—where 241 of the 242 onboard perished—the Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau (AAIB) released its preliminary findings. According to the report, both engine fuel control switches moved from the ''RUN'' to ''CUTOFF'' position just seconds after takeoff. One pilot questioned the other about this action, but the second pilot denied having done so. Given that these switches rarely shift unintentionally, the event has triggered deeper analysis, particularly of the cockpit voice recorder (CVR) and flight data recorder (FDR), as the AAIB continues its investigation.
International Framework for Air Crash Investigations
Aircraft accident investigations are governed by the 1944 Chicago Convention, under the oversight of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)—a UN agency that sets global standards for aviation safety and regulation.
Per Annex 13 of the Convention:
- The State of Occurrence (where the accident takes place) leads the investigation.
- Other involved states also have the right to participate:
- State of Registry – where the aircraft is registered
- State of the Operator – the airline operating the flight
- State of Design – the country responsible for the aircraft’s design and airworthiness oversight
- State of Manufacture – the nation where the aircraft was assembled
AAIB: India’s Independent Air Crash Investigation Body
Established in 2012, the Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau (AAIB) operates under India’s Ministry of Civil Aviation. It was formed to separate accident investigations from regulatory authorities like the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA), in line with ICAO’s guidelines for independent inquiry.
Legal Authority and Governance
- The AAIB’s powers derive from Section 7 of the Aircraft Act, 1934, allowing the government to set rules for investigating air accidents involving Indian aircraft or occurring within Indian territory.
- Initially, investigations were handled by the DGCA’s Air Safety Directorate under the Aircraft Rules, 1937.
- The Aircraft (Investigation of Accidents and Incidents) Rules, 2012 formally established the AAIB’s role. These rules were later amended in 2017 and 2021.
- The AAIB now functions as an “Attached Office” under the Ministry of Civil Aviation.
Role and Responsibilities
The AAIB is tasked with investigating:
- All Accidents and Serious Incidents involving aircraft with an All Up Weight over 2,250 kg or powered by turbojet engines.
- Safety occurrences are classified into:
- Accidents
- Serious Incidents
- Incidents
Key Principles:
- Investigations are not intended to assign blame, but rather to improve aviation safety (as per Rule 3 of the 2017 Rules).
- AAIB has immediate and unrestricted access to all relevant information and evidence—without needing prior approval from judicial or government entities.
Investigation Process
- On-Site Inspection: Investigators are dispatched promptly to secure wreckage and perishable evidence, including flight recorders.
- Data Collection: The AAIB collects information from airline operators, maintenance personnel, regulatory bodies, and others.
- Expert Analysis: Collaboration with technical experts and institutions like Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) or DGCA labs is common.
- Report Compilation: After internal reviews, a final investigation report is published and submitted to ICAO and relevant states.
Additional Functions
- Conducting in-depth safety studies.
- Issuing safety recommendations to domestic regulators like the DGCA or international bodies, aimed at preventing future occurrences.
- Monitoring the implementation of these safety measures.
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Why India Must Support CIMMYT and IRRI: Repaying the Green Revolution Debt
Introduction: A Legacy of Global Agricultural Collaboration
The term “Green Revolution” was first coined in 1968 by William S. Gaud of USAID, recognizing initiatives like India’s rapid adoption of high-yield wheat varieties to combat hunger. These advances—spearheaded by institutions such as the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) and the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI)—transformed India''s food landscape and helped avert famines.
However, the closure of USAID under the Trump administration on July 1, 2024, has jeopardized the funding of these critical research organizations. With the U.S. withdrawing support, institutions like CIMMYT are turning to nations like India—longtime beneficiaries of their innovations—for financial backing.
CIMMYT and IRRI: Pioneers of the Green Revolution
- CIMMYT (headquartered in Mexico) has been central to global wheat and maize research. It developed semi-dwarf wheat varieties such as Lerma Rojo 64A and Sonora 63, first introduced in India during 1964–65. These varieties laid the foundation for India''s Green Revolution.
- IRRI, based in the Philippines and founded in 1960 by the Rockefeller and Ford Foundations, played a parallel role in rice research.
Both institutions were integral to the U.S. Cold War strategy of using food security to prevent the spread of communism by stabilizing politically fragile regions through agricultural self-sufficiency.
India’s Green Revolution Gains
India’s Green Revolution was built on CIMMYT and IRRI breeding lines. Indian scientists localized and improved these materials:
- Wheat varieties like Kalyan Sona and Sonalika (1967–68) were developed from CIMMYT strains.
- Subsequent successes included HD 2285, HD 2329, and HD 2967, pushing Indian wheat yields above 7 tonnes/hectare.
- On the rice front, Indian breeders created mega varieties such as Swarna and Samba Mahsuri.
- The Pusa Basmati series (developed at IARI) now dominates India’s premium rice exports, contributing $5.94 billion in 2024–25.
Norman Borlaug, the father of the Green Revolution, credited India’s success to institutions like IARI and the visionary leadership of MS Swaminathan.
The Urgent Need for Continued Collaboration
Despite decades of domestic progress, India remains deeply reliant on global research inputs:
- In 2024–25, six of India’s top 10 wheat varieties—covering over 20 million hectares—used CIMMYT germplasm.
- India’s last widely adopted home-bred wheat variety, HD 2967, peaked several years ago.
- Most new varieties since then have depended heavily on CIMMYT''s genetic resources.
The same is true for rice, where IRRI’s material continues to underpin varietal development in India.
India’s Minimal Support to Global Research Institutions
In 2024, despite its status as a major beneficiary:
- India contributed only $0.8 million to CIMMYT
- And $18.3 million to IRRI
These figures pale in comparison to the billions in economic gains and food security benefits derived from their research.
What India Should Do
With USAID funding withdrawn, institutions like CIMMYT are at risk. India has both the moral responsibility and strategic incentive to step up.
India should:
- Increase core funding for CIMMYT and IRRI.
- Prioritize joint research on:
- Heat and drought resilience
- Nitrogen-use efficiency
- Gene editing
- AI in crop breeding and precision farming
- Ensure this global support complements, not replaces, investments in Indian research bodies like IARI and state agricultural universities.
Conclusion: Repaying the Green Revolution Debt
India owes much of its food security and agricultural prosperity to the foundational work of CIMMYT and IRRI. Now, with these institutions facing funding shortages, it is time for India to return the favor. Supporting them is not charity—it’s strategic, sustainable investment in the nation’s future food security.
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The State of Inequality in India: A Deeper Look Beyond Consumption Metrics
Context
A recent World Bank report has suggested that India is among the least unequal countries in the world, citing a decline in the Gini coefficient of consumption inequality from 0.288 (2011–12) to 0.255 (2022–23). However, this optimistic picture is at odds with findings from multiple sources, including the World Inequality Database (WID), which reveal a worsening gap in income and wealth.
Understanding the Dimensions of Inequality
1. Consumption Inequality
- Refers to differences in household spending on goods and services.
- The World Bank’s low Gini estimate suggests reduced inequality.
- However, consumption inequality often understates true economic disparities, as people tend to smooth consumption even in volatile income situations.
- The decline may reflect improved access to credit or subsidies, not genuine income redistribution.
2. Income Inequality
- Measures disparities in wages, salaries, and earnings.
- According to WID 2023, India’s income Gini coefficient is 0.61—among the highest globally, surpassed by only 47 countries.
- Official household surveys under-report income, especially at the top end, masking the full extent of the divide.
3. Wealth Inequality
- Captures disparities in ownership of assets such as property, stocks, and savings.
- India’s wealth Gini stands at 0.75 (WID, 2023), reflecting severe wealth concentration.
- The top 1% owns a disproportionately large share of national wealth, highlighting entrenched inequality.
Why Measuring Real Inequality in India Is Challenging
- Household Surveys (like HCES) miss out on top income and wealth brackets, which are underrepresented or absent in sample-based datasets.
- Tax data covers only about 6 crore individuals, leaving the vast informal sector invisible in income assessments.
- India lacks a formal wealth census; most wealth estimates rely on indirect proxies such as:
- Forbes billionaires list
- SEBI disclosures
- Real estate valuations
- Survey design bias and underreporting by the rich further distort inequality estimates.
Limitations of the Gini Coefficient
While widely used, the Gini coefficient has important limitations:
- It provides an aggregate picture, hiding extreme wealth concentration at the very top.
- It ignores distribution within population groups, such as the bottom 50% or top 0.1%.
- Supplementary indicators like:
- Top 1% wealth share
- P90/P10 ratios
- Theil index are needed for a more accurate representation of inequality.
Why High Inequality Matters
Persistent inequality has broad and damaging implications:
- Economic Mobility Declines: The bottom 50% find it harder to move up the ladder.
- Aggregate Demand Shrinks: The wealthy save more, but do not spend enough to drive broad-based growth.
- Social Cohesion Weakens: Economic disparity fuels polarisation, resentment, and unrest.
- Policy Distortion: Elite capture can skew taxation, subsidies, and land use in favour of the rich.
- Uneven Growth: GDP growth disproportionately benefits the top 10%, leaving most behind.
India’s Constitutional and Policy Obligations
- Article 38(2) of the Constitution mandates the state to reduce income and opportunity disparities.
- Article 39(c) under the Directive Principles of State Policy requires the state to prevent wealth concentration.
- Social schemes like MGNREGA, PM-KISAN, PM-SVANidhi, and the JAM trinity aim to bridge inequality, but suffer from leakages and poor targeting.
Way Forward: Towards Inclusive Development
To address structural inequality, India must pursue bold, multi-dimensional reforms:
1. Progressive Taxation
- Reintroduce wealth and inheritance taxes on the ultra-rich.
- Expand the tax base and reduce regressive indirect tax burdens.
2. Universal Public Services
- Scale up investment in healthcare, education, nutrition, and housing to ensure equal life chances.
3. Financial Inclusion
- Improve low-cost credit access, especially in rural areas.
- Strengthen borrower protections to reduce dependency on informal lenders.
4. Employment and Skilling
- Align vocational training with industry demand.
- Promote job-rich sectors like manufacturing, MSMEs, and green economy.
5. Better Data Infrastructure
- Integrate survey data, income tax records, and asset disclosures.
- Regularly publish inequality metrics beyond consumption-based figures.
Conclusion
India’s rising inequality is more than a statistical concern—it is a structural threat to social justice, economic resilience, and democratic stability. While some indicators suggest progress, a broader and more accurate picture reveals deep disparities in income and wealth. Bridging these gaps requires not just targeted schemes but systemic reforms in taxation, public investment, and data transparency. Only then can India move toward inclusive and equitable growth for all.
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Informal Credit in India
Context
Despite near-universal access to bank accounts in India, recent research—including from CMIE and Piramal Enterprises—reveals a surge in informal borrowing among low-income households. This trend exposes the persistent gaps in formal credit inclusion.
Defining Informal Credit
Informal credit includes loans or advances obtained from non-regulated sources such as:
- Local moneylenders
- Pawnshops
- Friends and family
- Chit funds
These channels usually lack formal agreements, legal safeguards, or transparency, placing borrowers at heightened risk.
- Recent Trends in Credit Access
- Bank Access: According to NFHS-5 (2021), 96% of Indian households have at least one member with a bank account.
- Shift Toward Informal Sources:
- A 4.2% decline in formal credit usage was recorded among poor households (CMIE, 2023).
- Simultaneously, there was a 5.8% increase in informal borrowing among families earning ₹1–2 lakh annually.
- Reliance in Rural Areas: As per NABARD’s Financial Inclusion Survey (2019), three out of four rural adults depend on informal credit in some capacity.
- Volume: Informal credit outstanding was estimated at ₹1.4 lakh crore in 2022 (CRISIL).
Implications
- Reluctance of Formal Lenders: Banks and NBFCs are wary of lending to low-income individuals due to perceived credit risk.
- Exclusion Due to Documentation Gaps: Many poor households lack necessary collateral, stable income proof, or formal employment records required for institutional loans.
- Mismatch Between Demand and Supply: Formal credit channels are ill-equipped to meet the urgent, localized, and small-ticket needs of the rural and informal economy.
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Recognising India’s Open Ecosystems: A Call for Conservation and Policy Reform
Introduction: Misunderstood Landscapes at Risk
India’s deserts, grasslands, and savannas—collectively known as open ecosystems—are rich in biodiversity and cultural significance. Yet, these landscapes continue to be misclassified as “wastelands”, leading to their degradation through inappropriate land-use policies. Environmental experts and ecologists are calling for an urgent reassessment of this outdated classification to protect these ecologically vital regions.
What Are Open Ecosystems and Why They Matter
Open ecosystems include deserts, scrublands, grasslands, and savannas, defined by limited tree cover and dominated by herbaceous or shrubby vegetation. While often perceived as barren, these landscapes are highly adapted to their harsh environments and support complex ecological systems.
Globally, deserts cover about one-third of Earth’s land surface and sustain unique biodiversity. Historically, such regions supported great civilizations—like the Indus Valley, Mesopotamia, and ancient Egypt—demonstrating their capacity to support both nature and human societies.
The Colonial Legacy of “Wastelands”
India’s land-use classifications still reflect colonial frameworks that labelled vast open ecosystems as unproductive wastelands. This label implies these lands require transformation—often through tree plantations, agriculture, or infrastructure projects—rather than protection.
Millions of hectares of grasslands and scrublands have been designated as wastelands in official records, justifying their conversion. This misclassification has led to widespread ecological degradation, compromising essential services like:
- Soil fertility
- Water retention
- Carbon storage
- Wildlife habitats
Ecological and Cultural Value of Open Landscapes
India’s open ecosystems are home to several endangered species, including:
- Great Indian Bustard
- Caracal
- Indian Wolf
- Chinkara
These species depend on the structure and dynamics of open habitats, which tree-planting schemes often disrupt.
Moreover, open ecosystems are critical carbon sinks, storing substantial amounts of carbon in their soils—a factor often ignored in climate policies focused solely on forest biomass.
Culturally, these landscapes sustain the livelihoods of millions of pastoralists, such as:
- Dhangars (Maharashtra)
- Rabaris (Gujarat)
- Kurubas (Karnataka)
These communities have acted as traditional stewards of these ecosystems through sustainable practices like rotational grazing and local water management. However, conservation policies that favour fencing or afforestation have resulted in displacement, marginalisation, and the loss of traditional ecological knowledge.
Rethinking Restoration and Greening Goals
The current push to "green" open ecosystems through tree plantations stems from a misconception that all ecosystems should resemble forests. Such efforts often produce monoculture plantations that harm biodiversity and alter local ecology.
Experts propose an alternative, ecologically informed restoration model that is:
- Low-tech and community-led
- Based on natural regeneration
- Focused on soil and moisture conservation
- Grounded in indigenous knowledge systems
- Inclusive of soil carbon as a key climate metric
Afforestation should not be a one-size-fits-all solution. Restoration must respect and reflect the diversity of India’s ecosystems.
Policy Recommendations: Charting a New Course
To safeguard open ecosystems and the communities that depend on them, India must adopt a revised land management approach. Key policy reforms include:
- Eliminating the “wasteland” label from land classification systems.
- Creating ecosystem-specific conservation frameworks tailored to deserts, grasslands, and savannas.
- Recognising pastoralist communities as co-managers, with legal rights and incentives for conservation.
- Integrating open ecosystems into national climate, biodiversity, and land degradation strategies.
- Accounting for soil carbon in India’s climate mitigation and restoration targets.
Symbolic changes also matter. Experts recommend renaming the “World Day to Combat Desertification and Drought” to “World Day to Combat Land Degradation”, to reflect the ecological legitimacy of deserts and grasslands.
Conclusion: Towards a More Inclusive Conservation Ethic
India’s open ecosystems are not empty lands waiting to be “fixed” but living landscapes vital to biodiversity, climate resilience, and cultural identity. Recognising their value—ecologically and socially—demands a paradigm shift in policy and public perception. Moving away from colonial legacies and afforestation-centric thinking is essential to conserving these ecosystems for future generations.
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Climate Migration in South Asia: A Rising Crisis
Context
An increase in climate-related disasters—such as prolonged droughts in Bundelkhand and recurring floods along the Jamuna River in Bangladesh—has brought attention to climate migration as an escalating livelihood challenge in South Asia.
Understanding Climate Migration
- Definition: Climate migration involves the involuntary movement of individuals or communities due to environmental changes triggered by climate-related events. These include sudden-onset disasters like floods, droughts, and cyclones, as well as gradual changes such as rising sea levels and land degradation.
- Annual Impact: According to the 2022 report by the International Refugee Assistance Project, approximately 20 million people are internally displaced each year due to climate-induced disasters.
- Patterns: These migrations may be temporary or long-term, recurring seasonally or becoming permanent. Vulnerable populations, especially those with fewer resources, are most affected.
Examples and Data Points
- Bundelkhand (India): Between 1998 and 2009, the region experienced 8 to 9 droughts. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) projects a temperature increase of 2–3.5°C by the year 2100.
- Charpauli (Bangladesh): In 2022, over 500 homes were destroyed within a week due to riverbank erosion caused by the Jamuna River. The river erodes its banks by 12 to 52 meters annually.
- Vidarbha and Marathwada (India): Migrants from these areas travel extensive distances, often on foot, for seasonal sugarcane cutting work. They endure extreme heat, with temperatures exceeding 50°C and unpredictable rainfall patterns.
Primary Drivers of Climate Migration
- Drought and Rainfall Instability: In Bundelkhand and Marathwada, agricultural collapse due to weak or delayed monsoons has driven mass outmigration.
- Flooding and Riverbank Erosion: Villages like Charpauli demonstrate how increased river swelling—exacerbated by glacial melt and floods—leads to significant displacement.
- Extreme Heat and Water Scarcity: In Maharashtra’s sugarcane-producing areas, rising temperatures and shrinking water availability reduce farm viability and trigger seasonal migration.
- Debt Burden and Economic Collapse: Repeated crop failures have led to bonded labour practices, where sugarcane workers accept advances between ₹50,000 and ₹5 lakh, effectively tying them into exploitative contracts.
- Loss of Livelihood Assets: The degradation of soil, erosion of cultivable land, and escalating input costs in climate-sensitive regions compound vulnerability and drive migration.
Consequences of Climate Migration
- Rural Depopulation: Entire families are abandoning their native villages, transforming local demographics and land-use patterns.
- Urban Informality: Migrants frequently end up in slums lacking basic amenities such as sanitation, housing, and public services. For instance, many from Bundelkhand relocate to informal settlements in Delhi.
- Gender-Specific Risks: Women left behind in villages face increased risks of sexual violence, take on financial responsibilities, and often must withdraw children—especially girls—from school.
- Labour Exploitation: Seasonal workers bound by sugarcane contracts operate under forced labour conditions, with no right to exit.
- Erosion of Community Networks: Sustained outmigration fractures rural support systems, dismantling shared practices like collective farming and communal water use.
Challenges in Addressing Climate Migration
- Absence of Legal Framework: India does not officially recognize climate migrants, excluding them from disaster relief or migration-related welfare policies.
- Inaccessibility of Welfare Schemes: Migrants frequently lose entitlements such as ration cards, pensions, and MGNREGA eligibility after moving to new regions.
- Substandard Living and Working Conditions: Migrant workers, like cane cutters in Maharashtra, often reside in makeshift tents without clean water, sanitation, or electricity.
- Entrapment in Debt Cycles: As payments are tied to productivity in low-yield conditions, many migrant families accrue debt over multiple years.
- Lack of Reliable Data: The absence of a national mechanism to track climate-induced migration hinders timely and informed policymaking.
Pathways Forward
- Legal Recognition: Incorporate climate-displaced individuals into national migration and disaster management laws, such as the Disaster Management Act (NDMA).
- Portable Social Protection: Ensure access to entitlements during migration through mechanisms like the One Nation One Ration Card scheme and eShram registration.
- Climate-Resilient Employment in Rural Areas: Strengthen MGNREGA’s scope to include activities like water conservation, agroforestry, and drought mitigation.
- Skills and Mobility Support: Offer mobile skill development and job placement services tailored to seasonal migrants, particularly sugarcane cutters.
- Creation of a Climate Migration Index: Develop a district-level vulnerability index by integrating data from IMD, Census, and SECC to enable early warning and policy response.
Conclusion
Climate migration has already become a pressing reality in India, especially among agrarian and rural populations. In the absence of targeted policies and social protections, migration driven by climate stress will remain a form of involuntary displacement rather than a livelihood choice. A sustainable and inclusive development approach must recognize the interplay between mobility, dignity, and climate resilience.
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India’s Sovereignty and the Threat of Digital Dependence
- Vice President’s Warning:
India’s Vice President recently cautioned that modern threats to national sovereignty no longer stem from military invasions but from increasing dependence on foreign digital infrastructure. He emphasized a rising danger of “digital colonialism” — a new era of dominance, not by armed forces, but by algorithms and data.
Understanding Digital Colonialism
Digital colonialism refers to the control and exploitation of digital infrastructure, data, and platforms of developing nations by powerful multinational technology corporations, primarily based in developed countries.
- It reflects a form of neo-colonialism where the Global North dominates the digital landscape of the Global South.
American tech giants such as Google and Amazon routinely extract vast amounts of data from users in developing countries. This data is used to reshape markets, influence consumer behavior, and control technological ecosystems.
Major Concerns Around Digital Colonialism
1. Loss of Digital Sovereignty:
Big tech companies and developed nations increasingly dictate terms of engagement in the digital world.
- Example: In 2024, WhatsApp threatened to withdraw from India over the traceability requirement under the 2021 IT Rules, highlighting tensions between national regulation and foreign platform policies.
2. Cultural Imperialism:
Global platforms often promote the values, content, and narratives of developed countries, pushing local cultures, languages, and traditions to the margins.
3. Surveillance Capitalism:
Tech companies collect, analyze, and monetize user data—often without informed consent—posing a serious risk to privacy, civil liberties, and democratic control.
India’s Strategy to Counter Digital Colonialism
1. Strengthening Digital Sovereignty:
India is actively building indigenous digital frameworks such as:
- India Stack – a unified digital identity and payments infrastructure.
- ONDC (Open Network for Digital Commerce) – an open-source alternative to dominant e-commerce platforms.
2. Data Localization Efforts:
- India refused to join the Osaka Track, which promotes unrestricted cross-border data flows.
- Enacted the Digital Personal Data Protection (DPDP) Act, 2023, aiming to localize and regulate personal data within national boundaries.
3. Reducing Strategic Tech Dependence:
- Programs like Make in India and Chips to Startup (C2S) seek to increase domestic manufacturing and self-reliance in key technology sectors such as semiconductors, defense, and space.
4. Policy Adaptation:
- UNCTAD’s 2021 report advised nations to routinely revise data policies to ensure a balance between economic growth, public interest, and global integration.
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India’s Growing Influence in a Multipolar World
Recognition of India’s Role:
India’s evolving strategic importance was acknowledged by Singapore’s Foreign Minister during his recent engagement with India’s External Affairs Minister. This comes as global power dynamics increasingly shift toward multipolarity.
What is a Multipolar World Order?
A multipolar order is characterized by the presence of multiple influential powers, unlike bipolar (e.g., Cold War-era US-USSR) or unipolar (e.g., post-Cold War US dominance) systems.
- In this structure, various regions and countries pursue independent policies, collaborate selectively, and compete across different domains like security, trade, and technology.
Rise of Multipolarity in Global Affairs
- Geopolitical Shift: The world is gradually moving away from post-WWII power structures dominated by the US and USSR.
- Institutional Relevance Questioned: Traditional institutions like the UN, IMF, and World Bank are being scrutinized for their relevance in today''s context.
- Example: The New Development Bank (established by BRICS) serves as an alternative to the World Bank.
- Growth of Plurilateral Platforms:
- Bodies like BRICS+, Quad, and SCO represent a flexible, issue-based approach to international cooperation, unlike rigid Cold War blocs such as NATO or the Warsaw Pact.
India’s Role in Shaping the Multipolar Landscape
1. From Non-Alignment to Multi-Alignment:
India has moved from its historic non-aligned stance to a pragmatic policy of engaging across diverse groupings—balancing ties with both Western and Eurasian powers:
- Western blocs like Quad and IPEF
- Eurasian platforms like SCO and BRICS
2. Focus on Mini-laterals:
India increasingly participates in smaller, purpose-driven alliances:
- Quad (Indo-Pacific security)
- I2U2 (India-Israel-UAE-USA)
- IPEF (Indo-Pacific Economic Framework)
3. Vision of a Multipolar Asia:
India supports a global multipolar order built around a similarly diverse and multipolar Asia.
Challenges in Pursuing Multipolarity
1. Resurgence of Cold War-Like Blocs:
The Ukraine conflict has deepened geopolitical divides—reviving bipolar dynamics with:
- US-led Western bloc vs.
- Russia-China alliance
This resurgence restricts the space India needs to exercise strategic autonomy.
2. Growing Pressure to Take Sides:
As global tensions increase, India’s policy of balancing between QUAD and SCO, or BRICS and Indo-Pacific alliances, becomes harder to maintain.
3. Declining Russian Influence:
Russia’s increasing reliance on China reduces its strategic independence, which in turn narrows India''s options in Eurasian geopolitics.
Conclusion
India stands at a pivotal crossroads in both digital and geopolitical domains. Protecting digital sovereignty from external control is as vital today as guarding territorial integrity. Simultaneously, India’s nuanced diplomacy and leadership are crucial in steering the global order toward genuine multipolarity. Both efforts require sustained investment in domestic capacity, resilient institutions, and bold international engagement.
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