Reviving Russia's role in the Indo-Pacific
The rise of the Indo-Pacific as a distinct security space presents a challenge to vital elements of Russia’s effort to position itself as a great power and to balance the West, notably through a close Sino-Russian bilateral relationship.
Revival of Russia’s role - Needed
- Russia’s presence in Indo-Pacific region: Indo-Russian cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region goes back to 1971 when India and the former Soviet Union had signed a Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation.
- India wanted Russia in Indo-Pacific region: India has assured Russia that New Delhi’s closeness to Washington will not come at Moscow’s cost.
- In contrast to the US understanding of a “free and open” Indo-Pacific, India has always signalled that it is interested in a “free, open and inclusive” Indo-Pacific which reflects India wanting Russia to be an active player in this region.
- Russia to make Indo-Pacific multi-polar in nature: India has tried to rope Russia into its Indo-Pacific initiatives so that the latter emerges as an independent pole outside China’s shadow which would make Indo-Pacific multi-polar in nature.
- The Chennai-Vladivostok maritime route and efforts by India and Japan to invest in Russia’s Far East are two such initiatives.
- Policy of cooperation and competition: From the Indian perspective, the Indo-Pacific is similar to Russia’s Greater Eurasian Partnership whose aim is to avoid Chinese hegemony in Eurasia.
- In the face of China’s advances through the Silk Road Economic Belt in the Russian sphere of influence in Eurasia, Russia has agreed to align its own initiative, the Eurasian Economic Union with China’s BRI.
- India to safeguard its neighbour: Russia has an opportunity to collaborate with India to shape the emerging order in the Indo-Pacific, which can be done given the historical trust between the two sides.
- Russia to tackle China’s presence in Arctic: India is not a serious military power as of now in the Pacific but helping its naval capabilities reach that goal would also help Russia in tackling China’s challenge to its pre-eminence in the Arctic.
Challenges
- Polar Silk Route by China: China defines itself as a “near-Arctic state” and as part of its Polar Silk Road, China’s activities would increase in the Arctic in the coming years.
- The strategic experts in China have even argued that whoever controls the Arctic sea route would control the world economy and China should play an active role in this area.
- China’s larger military reach: Beijing is a major defence supplier to several of the region’s States including Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand, dwarfing India’s minimal sales, defence dialogues and occasional joint military exercises in the region.
- Security Issues and Strategic Challenges: The cheaper imports from China are on a steady growing scale which is not appealing for the domestic economy in developing economies.
- The nature of the market has taken a hit and now where developing countries fear the danger of zero-sum mercantilism and rising protectionism in western economies.
- Thucydides Trap: It should be one of the prominent strategic concerns and security issues at present India face in the region from a major power.
- This imbalance in the balance of power equations or as Allison puts in a likelihood of conflict cannot be avoided.
- Debt trap from Chinese assistance: The US State Department report contains details of how China has ensured that developing countries across Asia and Africa are drawn into a “debt trap”, because of the terms of Chinese “assistance”.
Russia’s opposition to Indo-Pacific Order
- Rejected American concept of Indo-Pacific: The Russia sees the Indo-Pacific as an American creation by and hence, Moscow has rejected it outright.
- At the government level, Russia continues to oppose the Indo-Pacific but academia, think tanks and even the media have started to engage with this idea.
- Echo of Cold War: The Indo-Pacific is seen as an echo of the Cold War by the country and Russia is not welcoming the idea of the Indo-Pacific as a new geopolitical construct that would replace the Asia-Pacific.
- Indo-Pacific Region creates dividing lines: The Minister of Defense of Russia said that changing the construct from the Asia-Pacific to the Indo-Pacific would only create diving lines and tensions and restrain regional order.
- Indo-Pacific region unable to serve interest of stakeholders: The Indo-Pacific concept does not serve the interests of all players, instead only the interests of certain countries.
- It seems like Russia is rejecting the Indo-Pacific geopolitical construct, which they believe supports the interests of the United States and its allies only.
- Russia is not welcoming the Indo-Pacific concept: The country is more concerned with the military issues happening in the western hemisphere, particularly western countries’ initiatives to expand North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
- Russia is afraid that so-called the QUAD grouping might develop in 'ASIAN NATO or NATO alike regional arrangement’.
- Russia is committed to resisting American unilateralism and the US-centric world order: Russia views the US' efforts to create the Indo-Pacific concept as a way to build an anti-China alliance and undermine Russia's number one partner.
- Threatens Russia's goal to build regional ties: The Indo-Pacific regional concept threatens Russia's goal to build diverse regional partnerships beyond China, particularly China and India.
- As both India and Japan are members of the QUAD security dialogue, Moscow believes that it might set them against Russia.
Road ahead
- The Indo-Pacific Region is an idea that can add value to Russian diplomacy in different areas, including Asia, the Pacific and the Arctic.
- Russia's re-engagement in the region is driven by economic ambitions such as exploration and extortion of natural resources, export of energy resources, etc.
- The country aims to achieve its position as a corridor between Pacific Asia and Europe and be a major supplier of energy and agricultural produce to Asian economies.
- The Indo-Pacific is not just about the US, and Russia’s worldview is likely to be incomplete without engaging with the Indo-Pacific as there’s the potential danger of making it dependent on China.
- India advocates a rules-based Indo-Pacific with freedom of navigation, open connectivity, and respect for the territorial integrity and sovereignty of all states.
- India and Russia remain supporters of a multi-polar world order, understanding the constraints that bipolarity would impose on their foreign policy choices.
- India’s and Russia’s engagement with other powers does not come at the expense of their bilateral partnership while giving the two sides space to strengthen their political, economic, defence and cultural ties in the coming years.
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