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India and the great power triangle of Russia, China and US
The recent visit of Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov to Delhi and Islamabad is among multiple signs of India’s changing relations with the great powers.
Increasing role of India in US-Russia-China power struggle
- The leaders of the two nations i.e. Russia and China signed a formal treaty of alliance in 1950.
- Russia not only invested massively in the economic modernisation of China, but also gave it technology that made it easier for Beijing to become a nuclear weapon power.
- Dispelling the illusions that communist states don’t fight with each other, the armies of Russia and China fought each other on their frontier in 1969.
- The break-up between Russia and China also opened space for Delhi against Beijing after the 1962 war in the Himalayas.
- After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Moscow’s first instinct was to become a part of the political West but disappointed with the Western response, Russia turned to build a stronger partnership with China.
- In the 1960s and 1970s, China strongly objected to Delhi’s partnership with Moscow (much in the manner that Beijing complains about India’s relations with America today).
- Rising Sino-Russian relationship: An engaging feature of the current global situation is the rise of China and the transformation of the Sino-Russian relationship from enmity to détente and now entente.
- The China-Russia dynamic has played itself out across the Eurasian landmass as China has steadily moved westwards to incorporate the Central Asian States into its economic embrace.
- India’s engagement with US and Russia: The USSR became a major arms supplier to India, even as it backed New Delhi’s regional policy whole heartedly.
- On the other hand, despite tensions in relation to Pakistan, the United States gave India huge amounts of foreign aid that helped modernise its education and helped launch the Green Revolution.
- Emergence of China-US-India: The Indo-US nuclear deal took China aback since it signalled a strategic shift towards India by the United States, something that Beijing felt was not in its interest.
- India and China have not resolved their border dispute and New Delhi has steadily developed important military ties to the US, without quite becoming an American ally.
- Emergent Troika of Russia-China-Pakistan (RCP) Axis: The international relations experts have believed that a new strategic troika of Russia-China-Pakistan is emerging in order to counterbalance the US and its allies including India.
- US want to reset bilateral relations with China and Russia: The U.S. Secretary of State accused Beijing of “threating the rules-based order” which demonstrated the new increased degree of tension between the two countries.
- The Biden administration had been calling for a reset in bilateral relations, after which the relationship could be competitive, cooperative or hostile as the situation necessitates.
- New US approach: In the international arena, the United States pursues a new synthesis between “values” and “great power competition”.
- The US subscribes to a policy of pressure and escalation, ostensibly because it believes the basis of cooperation between the great powers on COVID-19 and climate change to be fragile.
- Emergence of Cold War 2.0: Unlike unipolar (United States post- Cold War), bipolar (Cold War), or multipolar (Europe before WWI) orders, tripolar systems have been relatively understudied by International Relations scholars.
- Growing turbulence in US-Russia-China Triangle: The Russian political scientists and international experts express the dominant idea that the conflict between the US and China is more an opportunity for Russia than a threat.
- Divergent Foreign Policies on China: India and Russia exhibit divergent foreign policy strategies regarding China, with India focusing on multi-alignment and Russia on developing ties within Asia.
Increasing role of India in US-Russia-China power struggle
- Increase in breadth and depth to India’s foreign policy: New Delhi’s growing strategic partnerships with the US and Europe has begun to end India’s prolonged alienation from the West.
- India’s growing engagement through raft of organisations: India does not and cannot view Russian-Chinese relationship as a zero-sum game.
- India has sought to engage both China and Russia bilaterally, as well as through a raft of organisations such as the Russia-India-China (RIC) grouping, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and the Brazil, Russia, India China and South Africa (BRICS).
- India is hedging against American uncertainties: One of the primary factors that should inform India’s continued participation in the RIC triangle is a strategic dilemma in its relationship with the United States.
- The current trajectory of U.S. grand strategy indicates that retrenchment and off-shore balancing are likely to continue into the foreseeable future and this could pose challenges for India.
- The RIC triangle offers a pathway for India to hedge against any potentially adverse outcomes resulting from its partnership with the United States.
- Maintenance of strategic autonomy: India needs to maintain its strategic autonomy and links with Russia and China.
- India’s formal trade with Russia is not significant but it remains vital for India’s defence posture because India may have to seek Russian help to build nuclear attack submarines and hypersonic vehicles.
- Greater involvement in international groupings: India needs to signal that it has its own views of the groupings and the Indo-Pacific concept by participating simultaneously in the JAI (Japan-America-India trilateral), Quad, RIC, the SCO and BRICS.
- India being a swing power in the Asia-Pacific region: While India needs the US to balance the rising Chinese power, it realises that joining the American camp formally would reduce India’s value.
- On the other hand, by cooperating with China on issues and maintaining its military ties with Russia, it is able to enhance its bargaining power with the US and still maintain a semblance of being a Eurasian power as well.
- The engagement with both Russia and China would enhance India’s bargaining power with the United States, and enable broad support for Indian initiatives on global issues.
- India’s choice to pursue multi-alignment redefines its strategic autonomy and pragmatism irrespective of the India’s geopolitical equations with Russia and the United States.
- India needs to manage its engagement with extra-regional players which will be key alongside enhancing its own capabilities and preparedness, given the rising military and strategic competition.
POSTED ON 09-04-2021 BY ADMIN
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