• The agriculture sector of India is the lifeline of the country, and its importance to the economy cannot be overemphasised as it contributes 17 per cent to the national GDP. It has not only proved to be one of the most resilient sectors during the pandemic, registering a growth of 3.6 per cent in 2020-21 and 3.9 per cent in 2021-2022, but also played a significant role in the revival of the economy.
• However, one of the biggest challenges faced by the agriculture sector in India and across the globe is climate change. There is a common consensus that the world is getting warmer, and the increasing weather vagaries adversely impact the agriculture sector. This growing strain is not only reducing the food produce but also impacting the sustainability of the livelihood dependent on it. 

Status of climate-proof agriculture in India:

Over the years, India has taken several steps to de-risk agriculture.

• India has large buffer stock of food grains for public distribution system mainly due to the efforts of farmers, researchers, and government schemes such as crop insurance, farm inputs and markets.
• Such huge buffer stock helped support nearly 800 million people during Covid-19.
• Indian Council for Agricultural Research (ICAR), with its CGIAR (Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research) partners and BISA (Borlaug Institute for South Asia), developed several high-yielding crop varieties.
• Wheat varieties with early heat tolerance enabled farmers in Punjab and Haryana to plant wheat in late October/early November and escape terminal heat stress.
• CGIAR, established in 1971, is a global partnership that unites international organizations engaged in research about food security.
• BISA is a non-profit international research institute dedicated to food, nutrition and livelihood security in South Asia.
• ICAR has also invested in understanding the magnitude of the climate crisis, identifying adaptation and mitigation strategies, and realistic measurements of greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture.
• Indian government have had reasonable success with minimum tillage and laser-levelling practices in north-western India.

Challenges faced by Agriculture due to climate change

1. Pace and complexity of climate change

• Pace and complexity of evolving climate risks are much more than research and development efforts.
• There are multiple stresses of different intensities and duration in one crop season.
• For example, heat, drought, and even floods occur in the same places, one after the other.

2. Crop production

• According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Report, the rise of global temperature and increasing food demand would pose large risk to food security globally and regionally.
• It finds that even at just 1⁰C of warming, a negative impact for major crops like wheat, rice and corn would be seen.

3. Agricultural soil

• The global Climate Change will have adverse effect on soil processes and properties important for restoring soil fertility and productivity.
• Increase in temperature, will reduce the soil carbon storage due to increased decomposition of soil organic matter by carbon dioxide emission, and ultimately leading to low water holding and nutrient supplying capacity.

4. Water resources

• Climate Change will have an impact on the predictability and variability in the availability of water, and also increase in the frequency of floods and droughts.
• Climate projections developed for India for the 2050s indicate an increase in the average temperature by 2-4⁰ C during that period, an overall decrease in rainy days by more than 15 days in Western and Central India and an increase by 5-10 days near foothills of the Himalayas and North-East India.

 Suggestions for creating an inter-ministerial programme for improvement of Indian agriculture

Risk zoning

• India’s agroecological mapping should urgently factor in the dynamic risk profile of a region, based on the frequency and intensity of hazards and yield losses.
• For example, diversification from agriculture would be preferred in very high-risk areas.
• In contrast, growth-promoting options should be the priority in low-risk zones and climate adaptation in medium-risk zones.

Land-use pattern

• Alternative land-use plans considering market demand, agroecological potential, climate risk profile, and socio-economic constraints of the region need to be developed.
• Policy support, incentives, and disincentives to farmers can enforce such land use plans.
• Such plans need to be developed and implemented for 100 backward districts.

Managing water resources

• Changing climate results in intensifying very heavy or no rainfall episodes.
• Identifying such hotspots, developing innovative harvesting systems for managing floods or waterlogging at a panchayat scale, and later using this water for irrigation in water-deficit periods should be given priority.

Genetic technology deployment

• Enhanced trait-based breeding, using precision phenotyping and molecular approaches, including genome editing, is increasingly being used to realise the full potential of genetics in different crops.
• Strategies are needed to deploy these for managing biological and climate stresses.

Digital agriculture and early-warning systems (EWS)

• There has been great progress in modelling, remote sensing, and machine learning worldwide, including in India.
• Coupling these tools with digital agricultural technologies can provide farmers and other stakeholders with value-added actionable knowledge to manage climate risks.
• These tools also need to develop state-of-the-art EWS for weather, food insecurity hotspot mapping at a granular scale, early identification of global trade opportunities, and tracing the movement of transboundary pests and diseases.

Efficient and inclusive insurance solutions

• The importance of insurance in managing climate risks will only grow due to the continued unpredictability of hazards.
•  Integrating satellite data, crop modelling, machine learning, and risk profiles of panchayats can greatly increase the efficiency and efficacy of insurance schemes.
• These technologies can also support universal insurance coverage for all farmers, providing them with a much-needed safety net.

Managing business risks

• Both food demand and supply are dynamically linked to climate risks.
• Innovative partnerships for agriculture produce aggregation, warehousing, distribution, and marketing models can help.
• Several banks and money-lending agencies are investing in understanding the climate risk profile to reduce their risk exposure.
• While this secures banks, poor farmers face pressure while purchasing agricultural inputs and could potentially fall into a poverty trap.
•  Social safety needs to be streamlined to support such farmers.

Energy transition is much talked about in the sustainability space, as it is backed by large corporations and often at the core of government plans worldwide. However, we must recognise that while agriculture is often classified with the social sector, its sustainability transition helps with the country’s climate goals and drives socio-economic growth as well. With governments largely driving the reform of the agricultural sector across countries, we look forward to more action in making this segment climate-proof.