• India''s year-long presidency of the G-20 and leadership of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) should not create unrealistic expectations about the dividends India can reap from these summits.
• The current geopolitical climate is characterized by a high level of distrust and tensions running high, and the threat of conflict looms large.
• Priorities listed by India as signifying its presidency, viz., climate change, clean energy, sustainable developmental programmes, and reform of multilateral institutions, are likely to take a back seat, given the deteriorating global situation.
• India also needs to be aware that the importance of the G-20 appears to be declining in today''s world, while the SCO seems to have somewhat greater traction.
• During its presidency of the two institutions, India may well be called upon to chart a course that balances the contradictory demands of the G-20 and the SCO.

Distrust between United States and China

• The United States & its allies and China & Russia have distrust between them.
• This leaves little room for countries like India, which have not declared their allegiance to either camp, to maneuver.
• The U.S. and its allies are in a position to provide Ukraine with an arsenal of the most sophisticated weaponry available, alongside provision for training Ukraine troops.
• Ukraine presents a spectacle of possessing substantial quantities of sophisticated modern weaponry.
• Russia is also clandestinely receiving equipment and material from its allies, China not excluded.
• The two sides are thus positioning themselves to demonstrate which set of modern weaponry is superior.
• The U.S. and European nations such as Germany, and many nations elsewhere are participating in what is turning out to be Europe’s war with a global impact.
• Even South Korea is becoming a potential supplier of military equipment to Ukraine.

Growing threat from China

• China has displayed its naval prowess in the seas around much of East and Southeast Asia and flexed its military muscle in the Ladakh and Arunachal sectors of the Sino-Indian border.
• India''s Defence Minister''s ‘vanilla’ laced response is unlikely to deter China.
• China is launching several other regional initiatives to checkmate India in the Indian Ocean region, such as the China-Indian Ocean Region Forum.
• China is seeking to widen the arc of conflict with India.
• Currently, China is targeting India for going closer to the U.S. and the Western bloc, for its partnership in the Quad, as well as its participation in maritime surveillance exercises with the U.S., Japan, and Australia.
• China is seeking new partnerships in India''s extended neighbourhood.
• West Asia is yielding to China''s muscular and diplomatic offensive.
• The new China-brokered Iran-Saudi Arabia entente is setting the stage for major diplomatic shifts across the region, marginalizing India and certain other nations.
• India is aware of China''s ability to embark on hybrid warfare, including the adoption of cyber tactics, and engage in the ''politics of water'' by redirecting the Himalayan rivers.

Challenges with neighbourhood (South Asia)

• The situation in Afghanistan appears to be steadily worsening.
• Events in Afghanistan country are now beginning to affect nations on its periphery.
• India lost all traction with the Taliban in Afghanistan.
• Pakistan and Sri Lanka, to different degrees, represent ‘worst case’ scenarios.

Challenges in India-Russia Relations

• India’s relations with Russia also appear to be entering a prolonged phase of uncertainty.
• Russian ties in defence cooperation have been a key factor in cementing their relations.
• As India looks more to the West, especially the U.S., for state-of-the-art weaponry, the inevitability of the relationship can no longer be guaranteed.
• With the Russia-China strategic relationship getting stronger, strains are inevitable in India-Russia relations.
• Russia’s unequivocal attack on the Quad during the SCO Defence Ministers meeting in New Delhi recently, is a pointer to the winds of change that are becoming evident.
• Other pacts involving Russia, such as the Tripartite Russia-India-China platform and BRICS, have lost much of their dynamism.
• The economic content of the bilateral relationship is limited, and for the present linked to trading in oil.

India has managed to emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic and the resultant economic crisis without much damage. India is widely seen as a prospective global power, but many obstacles have to be overcome before it can achieve its predetermined goal. Despite its fortuitous position of helming both the G-20 and SCO simultaneously, India should not claim to have attained its goal.