Context

Operation Sindoor (May 7–10) has revealed a concerning evolution in regional security—a new level of battlefield cooperation between China and Pakistan. Confirmed by Lieutenant-General Rahul R. Singh, Deputy Chief of Army Staff, this development marks a shift from a traditional strategic partnership to active operational collaboration. Understanding this shift is crucial for India’s military planning, diplomatic posture, and long-term security.

Nature of China-Pakistan Collusion

Strategic Shift: From Tacit Support to Tactical Partnership

• Historically, China’s involvement in India-Pakistan conflicts (1965, 1971, 1999) was mostly limited to diplomatic backing.
• Operation Sindoor exposed a deeper role: China provided direct operational support including intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance (ISR), and tactical interoperability with Pakistan’s forces.
• This approach is a form of sophisticated grey-zone warfare—supporting Pakistan without provoking direct conflict with India.
• Following the April 22 Pahalgam terrorist attack, China’s diplomatic stance clearly aligned with Pakistan.

Digital and Informational Collusion: Narrative Control

• Chinese state media and digital influencers echoed Pakistani propaganda, inflating Indian military losses.
• Coordinated social media campaigns with Pakistan’s ISPR aimed to delegitimise India’s response, obscure the terrorist origins of the conflict, and frame India as the aggressor.

Strategic and Operational Implications for India

Deterrence and a New Strategic Normal

• China’s covert support to Pakistan complicates India’s strategic deterrence calculus by allowing Beijing to challenge India’s red lines without direct engagement.
• India now operates under a new norm where conventional strikes against Pakistan occur amid nuclear deterrence risks.
• Meanwhile, China and Pakistan are developing a new normal of joint battlefield operations.

Boost to China’s Arms Industry and Two Live Borders for India

• Pakistan’s post-conflict acquisition of Chinese J-35 stealth fighters, KJ-500 AEW&C aircraft, and HQ-19 missile systems reflects deepening military ties.
• China effectively showcased its weapon systems in real combat, gaining validation against Western platforms and boosting its global arms market position.
• India now confronts two active fronts: the northern border with China remains tense despite partial disengagement, and the western Line of Control faces renewed hostilities, demanding simultaneous troop deployments and ISR focus on both fronts.

Strategic Recommendations and the Way Forward

1. Recalibrate Diplomacy with China

• India should impose costs on China for its military enabling of Pakistan, aligning diplomatic consequences with Beijing’s actions.
• Just as India rules out terror and talks with Pakistan, China’s support must affect bilateral relations.

2. Expand Conventional Capabilities

• Defence spending, which fell from 17.1% to 13% of central government expenditure over a decade, needs urgent review.
• Investments should focus on ISR, drones, cyber warfare, and network-centric operations.

3. Avoid Predictability in Military Responses

• Diversify punitive options beyond straightforward kinetic retaliation.
• Explore economic sanctions, covert actions, and treaty-based measures (e.g., reconsidering the Indus Waters Treaty) discreetly.

4. Institutional and Strategic Integration

• The convergence of threats across domains demands improved inter-agency coordination, military modernization, and doctrinal evolution.
• Operation Sindoor should be analyzed as a blueprint for future warfare tactics.

Conclusion

Operation Sindoor and the demonstrated China-Pakistan collusion represent a pivotal strategic turning point for India. This is no longer a hypothetical threat but a present reality. India must respond with a balanced approach combining military strength, diplomatic clarity, and innovative strategic thinking. The decisions made today will shape India’s ability to maintain regional stability or risk remaining on the back foot against a deeply integrated adversarial alliance.