Context

India currently finds itself at a critical juncture in the evolving international order, striving to assert its rightful global influence while contending with systemic constraints.
As leading powers recalibrate alliances and policies, India faces a series of diplomatic and strategic setbacks that underscore the complex reality of pursuing sovereignty, influence, and economic progress simultaneously.

Operation Sindoor: A Sobering Test of Diplomatic Support

Operation Sindoor highlighted the limitations India faces in rallying global backing against cross-border terrorism.
Following the April 22, 2025 Pahalgam terror attack, in which three Lashkar-e-Taiba operatives were neutralised, India presented substantial evidence linking the attack to Pakistan-based elements.

However, many of India’s strategic allies hesitated to publicly condemn Pakistan, despite its harbouring of UN-designated terrorists.

The situation was further muddled when U.S. President Donald Trump claimed credit for brokering a ceasefire through economic means—an account that conflicted with the Indian narrative.

In a perplexing diplomatic move, the U.S. welcomed Field Marshal Asim Munir of Pakistan post-operation.
Nonetheless, some support was forthcoming:

• The U.S. designated The Resistance Front (TRF)—responsible for the Pahalgam attack—as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation.
• The UN Security Council Monitoring Team also acknowledged TRF’s role.
  Yet, the response represented only a partial and insufficient consensus around India’s security concerns.

India–U.S. Tensions: Trade, Security, and Strategic Trust

Despite being long referred to as "natural allies", India–U.S. relations have grown increasingly strained:

• On the day India launched the landmark NISAR satellite, President Trump imposed a 25% tariff on Indian goods, using trade as leverage tied to India''s continued import of Russian oil.
• The U.S. stance appeared inconsistent and opportunistic—criticising India’s Russian energy ties, while seeking re-engagement with Moscow and allowing selective trade with China.
• Trump also urged U.S. companies to halt investments in India, advocating instead for "America First" hiring policies.
• These developments coincided with India’s growing exclusion from broader Indo-Pacific and global trade-security frameworks, challenging the depth of trust in bilateral ties.

The European Front: Economic Leverage and Asymmetries

Even as India works toward a trade agreement with the European Union, it faces mounting pressure:

• The EU recently sanctioned a Russian-linked refinery in India, despite knowing this move could inflate global energy prices.
• This action came even as EU members like Hungary, Slovakia, and Belgium continued importing Russian oil through formal exemptions.
• Additionally, EU-imposed carbon border taxes and digital trade barriers have been perceived as disproportionately harsh toward India—especially when contrasted with Europe’s lenient treatment of its own Russia-bound trade.

China’s Expanding Regional Footprint and Strategic Tensions

China’s Assertive Neighbourhood Strategy

China continues to mount pressure on India through multi-pronged tactics:

• Its proposed trilateral alliance with Pakistan and Bangladesh aimed to marginalize India, although Bangladesh has thus far resisted.
• China supported military upgrades in the region, notably helping revive Bangladesh’s Lalmonirhat airbase, and backed Pakistan militarily during Operation Sindoor.
• Standardising place names in Arunachal Pradesh and planning a mega dam on the Yarlung Zangbo (Brahmaputra) reflect China’s intent to dominate border narratives and resource flows.
• Meanwhile, its control over critical supply chains—including rare earths, APIs, and industrial machinery—gives Beijing significant leverage over India’s economy.

India’s Strategic Restraint: Silence or Autonomy?

India has deliberately chosen to abstain from strong positions in volatile global crises—such as Israel-Gaza, Israel-Iran, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict—often refraining from taking sides at the UN.

This policy of strategic non-alignment is intended to preserve autonomy and avoid entanglements.
However, the trade-off is a diminished geopolitical voice, leading to India being frequently sidelined in major global negotiations.

The belief that India can quietly focus on becoming the world’s third-largest economy overlooks the reality that strategic alignment increasingly shapes economic outcomes.
Global fragmentation, trade coercion, and declining faith in institutions like the WTO are redefining the rules of engagement.

Navigating the Future: India’s Multi-Alignment Strategy

Recognizing shrinking diplomatic space, India has begun to push back against Western double standards—particularly the hypocrisy in U.S. and EU energy dealings with Russia, while criticizing India for similar actions.

India’s recent call for a Gaza ceasefire marks a shift toward assertive diplomacy, aiming to protect national interests while engaging equitably with global powers.

Key forward-looking steps include:

• Finalising a trade pact with the U.S.
• Reinvigorating multilateral partnerships like BRICS—where India is set to host the 2026 summit
• Deepening ties with the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO)
• Revisiting relations with East Asian economies after having opted out of RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership)

These initiatives form the cornerstone of India’s evolving multi-alignment strategy, designed to enhance its negotiating power across platforms.

Conclusion

India’s journey through today’s shifting geopolitical terrain demands more than adaptability—it calls for assertive pursuit of national interests.

Through diversified partnerships, decisive diplomacy, and unflinching defence of its economic and security priorities, India must redefine its place in the emerging world order.

The era of focusing solely on economic growth while maintaining diplomatic caution has ended.
India must now act as a proactive and sovereign force, shaping not only its future, but the norms and power structures of a transforming international system.