• Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Russia was his first bilateral trip in his third term. This visit was highly significant due to its timing and the international context surrounding it. The trip followed a period of heightened scrutiny and criticism from the U.S. and European nations concerning Russia’s ongoing conflict with Ukraine.
• International Reactions - The visit drew strong reactions from global leaders:
• Ukraine: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed sharp criticism, viewing the warm relations between Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin as detrimental to Ukraine’s position.
• United States: The U.S. State Department, National Security Adviser, and Ambassador to India all issued statements expressing disappointment and concern over the apparent closeness between India and Russia.

Assessment of the Ukraine Conflict

• Timing and Context: Modi’s visit came two years after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Notably, India had previously refrained from holding the annual India-Russia summit in 2022 and 2023. The only notable statement from Modi regarding the conflict was his 2022 remark at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit where he told Putin that "this era is not of war."

Conflict Dynamics:

• Initial Setbacks: In the first two years of the war, Russia experienced significant setbacks, including a failed offensive on Kyiv, severe losses, and domestic unrest caused by military drafts. The resilience of Ukrainian defences and the effectiveness of NATO-supplied equipment also posed challenges for Russia.
• Current Situation: As of Modi’s visit, Russia has stabilized its position in the eastern part of Ukraine and has incorporated these areas into its territory through constitutional amendments. This situation suggests that Russia is in a stronger position to maintain the status quo.

India’s Perspective:

• Frozen Conflict: India seems to have concluded that a frozen conflict is the most probable outcome. This assessment is based on the current dynamics of the conflict and the potential need for substantial escalation by Ukraine, which would require significant additional support from Western nations.
• U.S. Presidential Election: India anticipated potential changes in U.S. policy with the possibility of Donald Trump challenging Joe Biden in the presidential race, who might adopt a different approach towards Ukraine and Russia.
• Statements and Stance: The joint statement from India and Russia referred to the conflict as “around Ukraine” rather than “in Ukraine,” subtly aligning with Russian perspectives. Additionally, the statement expressed “appreciation” for peace proposals “in accordance with international law and on the basis of the UN Charter,” indicating some common ground between the two nations.
• UN Abstentions: India has maintained a neutral stance by abstaining from multiple UN votes condemning Russia. This includes a recent vote on July 11, 2024, calling for a ceasefire after Russian missile attacks on Ukrainian targets, including a children''s hospital.

Geopolitical Signalling

• Moscow vs. Astana: Modi’s decision to visit Moscow instead of attending the SCO Summit in Astana highlighted India’s strategic priority to bolster ties with Russia. This choice was significant given the ongoing tensions with China and the fact that Chinese President Xi Jinping attended the Astana summit.
• China and the Quad: India’s focus on Russia underscores its strategy to balance tensions with China, especially along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Modi’s visit also reflects India’s caution regarding U.S. strategic groupings and partnerships, such as AUKUS and Quad Plus.
• U.S. Strategies: The visit signals India’s strategic autonomy and its intention to avoid over-reliance on Western alignments. The Biden administration’s involvement in various regional partnerships and summits has prompted India to reassess its strategic priorities and relationships.

Geo-Economic Considerations

Trade and Energy Relations:

• Oil Imports: India’s import of discounted Russian oil has significantly boosted bilateral trade, increasing from $5 billion-$10 billion annually to $65 billion in the previous year. This growth continued into the first quarter of 2024.
• Sanctions and Circumvention: With Western sanctions on Russia expected to persist, India has focused on developing mechanisms to sustain oil imports and circumvent these sanctions. The Modi-Putin summit addressed this by outlining action items to enhance trade, including cooperation in the Russian Far East and the Chennai-Vladivostok maritime corridor.

Investment and Trade:

• High-Value Investments: Significant investments have characterized the bilateral relationship. For instance, Rosneft’s acquisition of Nayara Energy was a major foreign direct investment. Indian public sector units have also invested in Russian oil fields. The U.S. and Europe have allowed such transactions to proceed by treating processed Russian oil as “Indian products.”
• Connectivity and Infrastructure: The focus on the Arctic North Sea route and potential connectivity through the INSTC and Chabahar project indicates strategic economic interests for India, especially as the U.S. may intensify restrictions on alternative connectivity routes.
• Future Implications
• Ongoing Variables: The future of India-Russia relations will depend on several factors:
• Conflict Progress: Developments in the Ukraine conflict and Russia’s economic resilience amid sanctions will influence bilateral ties.
• U.S. Policy Changes: The outcome of the U.S. presidential election and potential shifts in U.S. foreign policy will impact India’s strategic calculations.
• Economic Strategies: Continued efforts to balance trade and investment, along with geopolitical manoeuvres, will shape the trajectory of India-Russia relations.
• Enduring Message: Modi’s visit sends a clear message about India’s commitment to sustaining and strengthening its strategic partnership with Russia despite global pressures and shifting international dynamics.