• The Group of 7 (G7) nations stressed that the peak for global Green House Gas (GHG) emissions should be reached by 2025.
• They also committed to an “Acceleration Agenda” for G7 countries to reach net-zero emissions by around 2040 and urged emerging economies to do so by around 2050.
• China and India have committed to net zero by 2060 and 2070 respectively.
• However, emerging trends in climate change may not give the countries the luxury of being too late.

Forecasted Temperature Increase and Impact on Agriculture

Forecast of Temperature Increase

• The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has forecasted that global near-surface temperatures are likely to increase by 1.1°C to 1.8°C annually from 2023 to 2027.
• WMO also anticipates that temperatures will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year within this period.
• As per the India Meteorological Department (IMD), India experienced its fifth hottest year on record in 2022.

Impact on Agriculture

• Every 1-degree Celsius increase in temperature is likely to be inflicted in terms of human lives and livelihoods, especially for those working in the agriculture sector.
• India has the largest agricultural workforce (45.6 per cent in 2021-22) among G20 countries, which will cause a disproportionate impact on the country.
• Indian agriculture faces a double whammy: it has to feed the largest population (1.42 billion in 2023 and likely to be 1.67 billion by 2050), and it has to do so while contending with the increasing vagaries of nature.
• India’s grain production (330MT in 2022-23) gives is sufficient but the nutritional challenge remains.

Agricultural Research, Development, Education and Extension (ARDE)

ARDE vs Subsidy:

• Research at ICRIER indicates that investing in Agri-R&D yields much greater returns (11.2) compared to fertiliser subsidy (0.88), power subsidy (0.79), education (0.97), or roads (1.10).

Improving Resource Use Efficiency:

• ARDE plays a crucial role in enhancing the efficient utilization of natural resources like soil, water, and air.
• Development of heat-resistant seeds and precision agriculture techniques, such as drip irrigation, contribute to conserving resources.
• Sensor-based irrigation systems enable automated control, resulting in improved resource efficiency.
• Fertigation and nano-fertilisers help save on the subsidy for fertilisers and reduce carbon footprint.
• Implementation of innovative farming practices leads to higher output with fewer inputs while reducing GHG emissions.
• Research at the Borlaug Institute for South Asia (BISA) shows the benefits of mulching, including increased soil organic carbon and water savings.

Scaling up Experiments:

• Larger allocations of funds are essential for expanding successful experiments.
• Analysis of ARDE since 2005-06 reveals an increase in total expenditure, but research intensity shows fluctuations.
• Research intensity has grown from 0.55% in 2005-06 to its peak of 0.70% in 2010-11, before declining to 0.48% in 2019-20.
• Achieving higher research intensity requires increased budgetary allocations for ARDE.

ARDE- Allocations, Challenges & Solutions

Allocation of ARDE by Sector:

• There is a skewed distribution of ARDE towards the crop husbandry sector.
• The relative share of crop husbandry has marginally increased from 75% to 76% between 2008 and 2020.
• The shares for soil, water conservation, and forestry have declined from 5% to 2%.
• The shares for animal husbandry, dairy development, and fisheries sectors have decreased from 11% to 8%.
• Correcting this imbalance is crucial, especially considering that the livestock sector contributes 54% of GHG emissions in agriculture.

Challenges and Solutions:

• The overall research intensity in agriculture falls short of the recommended target of 1% of the agricultural gross value added (AGVA).
• To achieve this target, India needs to double its budgetary allocations for ARDE.
• Reducing fertiliser and power subsidies and redirecting those savings to Agri-R&D can improve research intensity.
• Political courage and innovative policies are required to ensure farmers'' incomes increase during this realignment phase.

With the considerable rise in funding for ARDE, it becomes essential to not only readjust expenses but also policies (such as subsidies for fertilizers, power, etc.) to address the issue of climate change. The livestock and horticulture sectors have been expanding at a rate that is more than twice that of the cereal sector. However, India’s current policies and programs are still focused on traditional staples like rice and wheat, reflecting outdated practices. It is crucial to shift this approach to improve nutrition and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.