• The AUKUS is about promoting deterrence and stability in the Indo-Pacific.
• US is actively participating in Asian regional grouping such as AUKUS and QUAD (Quadrilateral forum).
• However, Concerns such as China’s anger over Australia’s participation in these grouping could well be an inflection point in the evolution of Asian geopolitics.

AUKUS

• AUKUS is the new enhanced trilateral security partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
• It is the collaboration of the technology, scientists, industries, and defense forces of the three countries to deliver a safer and more secure region.
• The first major initiative of AUKUS would be to deliver a nuclear-powered submarine fleet for Australia.
• The deal is seen as a step towards curtailing China’s aggressive maneuvers in the Pacific region, especially in and around the South China Sea.

Phases of AUKUS nuclear submarine deal between US, UK, and Australia

• First Phase: It will embed Australian personnel in the American and British nuclear submarine establishments. There will also be more port calls by US and British nuclear-powered submarines in Australia.
• Second Phase: From 2027, UK and US will forward deploy nuclear submarines in Australia “to accelerate the development of the Australian naval personnel, workforce, infrastructure and regulatory system necessary” to establish solid SSN capabilities in Australia.
• Third Phase: It will start in the early 2030s, the US will sell up to five nuclear-powered submarines to Australia.
• Fourth Phase: It will start in the late 2030s, the UK will deliver the first British-built AUKUS submarine to Australia.

 Consequences of the AUKUS submarine deal for Asia

This multi-decadal plan will trigger multiple strategic consequences for Asia, including India. Five of them are mentioned below:

Change in Australia’s strategic capabilities

• AUKUS is an essence about transforming Australia’s strategic capabilities and making it a powerful factor in shaping the Indo-Pacific regional security environment. Nuclear-powered submarines are only one part of this broader ambition.
• AUKUS will see a deeper partnership between the US, UK, and Australia in a range of underwater technologies to counter the expansion of Chinese naval capabilities in the Indo-Pacific.
• AUKUS involves a range of emerging technologies like artificial intelligence and quantum computing that will shape regional security scenarios.
• In this context, India can now increase cooperation with Australia in the field of science and technology.

Importance of the UK in Asia

• The UK abandoned its security responsibilities East of Suez in the late 1960s, and become marginal to Asian security all these decades.
• But UK will now see its profile in Asia boosted by the AUKUS deal.  
• UK is the lynchpin in the AUKUS, with its critical role in designing and developing a new class of nuclear-powered submarines by US technologies to Britain’s domestic nuclear capabilities and the Australian demand.

The idea of an Anglosphere

• AUKUS has reinvigorated the idea of an “Anglosphere” that speaks of the enduring geopolitical bonds between the US, UK, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand.
• India had difficult ties with the Anglosphere in the past but in recent times a rapid expansion of its ties with the English-speaking world can be seen.
• For example: The post-war intelligence sharing among the “Five Eyes” has remained an important feature of India’s international relations.
• The Five Eyes is an intelligence alliance comprising Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

• AUKUS arrangement is more narrowly focused on the Indo-Pacific and will look beyond information sharing to the integration of the technological and defense industrial bases of the three countries.

Involvement of nuclear weapons

• The US and UK are nuclear weapon powers, and Australia has renounced its nuclear weapon option by joining the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT).

• AUKUS does not involve nuclear weapons.
• However, China has launched a campaign against the AUKUS, similar to its campaign opposing the India-US civil nuclear initiative during 2005-08 by saying it is against the non-proliferation norms.
• The NPT does not prohibit AUKUS-like cooperation between nuclear and non-nuclear weapon states.
• Also, three countries have repeatedly reaffirmed that they will negotiate the strictest terms for the international monitoring of the transfer and use of nuclear material under the AUKUS arrangement.

No Expansion Plans for AUKUS

• The US has made it clear that it does not plan to extend the AUKUS arrangement to other partners like Japan and India.
• In India, there is neither any expectation of such cooperation nor India has any reason to quarrel with the AUKUS plan to deter Chinese expansionism in the Indo-Pacific.

US’s regional strategy for the Indo-Pacific

• In the past, the US sought to promote regional security unilaterally through its own military capabilities.
• Due to the military challenge from China, the US is now eager to boost the strategic capabilities of its allies such as India and partners in the Indo-Pacific.
• Its focus is different with different partners, but the objective is similar — to promote local balances of power.
• It is boosting the military capabilities of Japan and South Korea and seeking to build a deeper partnership with India on strategic technologies.

India has an opportunity to develop a unique set of arrangements of its own with the US and its allies that will strengthen India’s comprehensive national power as well as enhance its contribution to regional peace and security.

Anglosphere

• Anglosphere is a group of English-speaking nations that share cultural or historical ties with the United Kingdom.
• These countries maintain close military, political, and diplomatic ties.
• Generally, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States are included as Core Anglosphere.