• The growing alignment between Russia and North Korea has raised alarms not only in the West but also in China. The Russia-North Korea Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty, ratified on 9 November, includes a critical provision for mutual military assistance. Article 4 of the treaty explicitly states that in the event of aggression against either party, both sides are obligated to provide the necessary support, including military aid.
• Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Andrey Rudenko, has described this alignment as consistent with international law and unrelated to the Russia-Ukraine war or the conflict on the Korean Peninsula.
• However, China, whose relationships with both countries have been shaped by Cold War-era ideological ties and a shared opposition to the West, is increasingly concerned about being sidelined in this evolving partnership.

Chinese chatter on Russia-North Korea cooperation

• Chinese social media is buzzing with discussions about North Korea’s reported deployment of troops to Russia’s Kursk Oblast to support the war in Ukraine, alongside Russia’s reciprocal provision of advanced anti-air missiles and air defence equipment to Pyongyang.
• Some Chinese analysts have highlighted North Korea’s gains from Russia’s advanced technology, particularly in space exploration. After multiple failed spy satellite launches, North Korea stands to benefit significantly from Russian support in developing its civilian space programme.
• Furthermore, Russia’s export of millions of barrels of oil to North Korea is creating strategic interdependencies that could reduce Pyongyang’s reliance on Beijing. Sun Zhuangzhi, director of the Institute of Russian, East European, and Central Asian Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, noted, “Russia’s economic structure relies heavily on resource exports, such as oil and gas.” By supplying oil to North Korea, Moscow diversifies its economic outreach while deepening ties with Pyongyang.
• While Chinese discourse acknowledges North Korea’s growing reliance on Russia for military and political support, there is increasing concern about the independent evolution of Russia-North Korea relations. Some commentators have stressed the need for trilateral cooperation between China, Russia, and North Korea to counterbalance the influence of the US and its Western allies. However, others point out that the increasing closeness between Moscow and Pyongyang seems to deliberately exclude Beijing—evidenced by Kim Jong Un’s direct visit to Russia last year, bypassing China.
• Many Chinese analysts underscore the inevitability of engaging China to sustain any long-term alliance. A Russia-North Korea-Iran axis, they argue, lacks the industrial capacity to be self-sustaining without China’s participation. With its unparalleled production capabilities, China remains an indispensable player. Feng Yujun, a professor at Peking University, suggested that any alliance without China would be ineffective, particularly as adversaries like South Korea and Israel are poised to bolster Ukraine in response.
• Interestingly, some voices on platforms like Weibo argue that the Russia-North Korea alliance could indirectly benefit China. By staying out of the Russia-Ukraine war and a potential conflict on the Korean Peninsula, China avoids overstretching its resources. Yang Zhen, deputy director of the Center for Northeast Asian Studies at the Shanghai University of Political Science and Law, noted that China-South Korea relations are already strained by the 2022 THAAD episode, adding further complexity to China’s strategic position.
• However, another perspective warns that war on the Korean Peninsula could destabilise the region, undermining China’s interests in Northeast Asia. Journalist Liu Heping argues that while North Korea’s support for Russia in the Ukraine war may not decisively alter its outcomes, it signals a deeper strategic alignment between the two nations. This shift could reshape dynamics in Northeast Asia, leading to a new bloc confrontation.

China also needs Russia and North Korea

• China’s partnership with Russia, reinforced by Western sanctions against Moscow, remains a cornerstone of its anti-Western coalition. However, Russia’s pursuit of closer ties with North Korea has raised concerns about a weakening China-Russia relationship.
• Chen Wenling, chief economist at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, described the China-Russia partnership as “an anchor of global peace and balance,” cautioning that any divergence between the two could embolden other nations to resort to hegemonic and bullying tactics.
• In Chinese discourse, the emphasis remains on the China-Russia alliance against the West, with North Korea occupying a more peripheral role. One commentator stressed that only through strengthened solidarity and cooperation can China and Russia effectively counter external pressures, protect their interests, and contribute to a more just and reasonable international order—an essential response to US hegemonism.
• Much of the narrative revolves around China’s superior position in the trilateral relationship, with Russia and North Korea seen as relying on China more than vice versa. However, the reality is more nuanced: China, too, depends on Russia and North Korea. By maintaining its role as their primary ally and cultivating a flexible anti-Western coalition, China advances its long-term strategic interests, even if this is not always explicitly acknowledged.
• Russia and North Korea occupy China’s inner circle, united by shared interests but differing in their approaches. China positions itself as neutral and exercises restraint—at least in theory—contrasting with the blunter and often aggressive stances of Russia and North Korea, which openly express their willingness to use force when their interests are threatened.
• The growing ties between Russia and North Korea are driven by their shared objective of asserting autonomy, reducing reliance on China, and adopting a confrontational posture toward the West. As this cooperation deepens, Beijing becomes increasingly wary of being sidelined in a relationship that it has historically dominated.
• This evolving dynamic has far-reaching implications—not only for the Russia-Ukraine conflict but also for the Korean Peninsula and China’s broader geopolitical ambitions. For Beijing, preserving its dominant role in this trilateral relationship is crucial. It aims to remain the primary partner while ensuring that both Russia and North Korea continue to depend on it.