Context:
This article examines how former US President Donald Trump’s foreign policy moves—ranging from military strikes in Iran to his controversial questioning of NATO’s relevance—are reshaping geopolitical alignments throughout Eurasia. It highlights Germany’s rise as a strategic leader in Europe, changing power dynamics in the Middle East, and the ripple effects of US disengagement from the Indo-Pacific. Together, these developments signal the emergence of a new geopolitical order with far-reaching consequences for both global and regional players, including India.

NATO in Transition – Trump and Transatlantic Strains:
NATO currently faces significant uncertainty, exemplified by the 32-member summit in The Hague. Trump’s persistent doubts about NATO’s importance, along with his push for European countries to increase defense spending, are compelling Europe to reconsider its security dependencies. Amidst questions about US commitment, Germany is stepping up as a new strategic pillar within the continent.

Germany’s Strategic Shift – From Hesitation to Leadership:
Historically, post-WWII Germany maintained a limited geopolitical role despite its economic power. However, 2022 marked a turning point, known as Zeitenwende, when Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced a historic shift. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine forced Germany to invest €100 billion to upgrade its armed forces and commit to NATO’s target of spending 2% of GDP on defense. Under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Germany is now actively leading NATO initiatives and deploying troops to Lithuania, signaling its growing military assertiveness.

US Middle East Policy – Disruption and Normalization:
Trump’s approach in the Middle East combined military actions—such as bombing Iranian nuclear facilities—with diplomatic efforts like ceasefires and proposing “Cyrus Accords” aimed at normalizing Israel-Iran relations. Building on the earlier Abraham Accords that facilitated Arab-Israel normalization, current strategies aim to expand these changes, potentially bringing Saudi Arabia and Iran closer. These shifts are recalibrating the region’s security landscape as Iran’s influence wanes and alliances realign.

Indo-Pacific Concerns Amid US Pullback:
Notably, key Indo-Pacific allies—Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand—were absent from the NATO summit, underscoring weakening security ties between Asia and Europe. Trump’s hesitance to designate Russia as a threat and his reluctance to fully endorse NATO’s Article 5 (collective defense) have unsettled these allies. As a result, countries in the region may pursue greater strategic autonomy and establish more independent security arrangements.

Rethinking Eurasian Security – Structural Change:
The evolving geopolitical environment demands more than increased defense budgets; it calls for a reimagining of regional partnerships. Events like the Ukraine war, tensions within NATO, and Iran’s internal challenges reflect a broader systemic shift. New power centers are emerging, with Germany asserting itself in Europe, the Middle East realigning, and the Indo-Pacific exploring self-reliant security strategies—a threefold transformation of Eurasia.

India’s Strategic Role in a Changing Eurasia:
India occupies a unique position spanning the Indo-Pacific, Middle East, and Europe, giving it considerable strategic leverage. New Delhi is broadening its European connections, engaging with the Middle East across divisions, managing ties with China, and strengthening partnerships with ASEAN countries, Japan, Australia, and South Korea. While maintaining cooperation with the US, India is simultaneously preparing to navigate an increasingly unpredictable global order marked by shifting power balances.

Conclusion:
Trump’s disruptive foreign policies are accelerating a tectonic shift in the global order, forcing Eurasia into profound structural realignment. With Germany emerging as a European leader, the Middle East undergoing regional balancing, and the Indo-Pacific moving toward strategic independence, the era of US-led security assurances is being fundamentally questioned. For India, this evolving landscape presents both significant challenges and promising opportunities, demanding agile diplomacy and forward-looking strategic planning.