What are the possible implications of Russian invasion of Ukraine on Indo-Russia ties?.
Reports from intelligence agencies of US and the west indicate that Russia can invade Ukraine anytime, creating concern across the globe. Since the eastward expansion of NATO and Crimean annexation, ties between Russia and west has deteriorated and is at its lowest since the Cold War.
Potential effects of Russian invasion
- Affects global trade
A Russian invasion will all likely attract economic sanctions on Russia and the Russian president. Global trades will fall and pro-trade policies will be affected.
- War in eastern Europe
Eastern Europe has been in turmoil since Crimean annexation. The invasion will put lives of millions of people in danger due to the war.
- Bipolar world
The world will become increasingly bipolar with Russia and China becoming adversaries of the west. India will be left in dilemma whether to take sides or not.
Effects on Indo-Russia ties
- Defence deals
Russia supplies around 60% of India’s defence equipments. In addition, it handles spares for existing Indian equipments. Sanctions on Russia will be detrimental for India’s defence equipments.
- Russian trade
Trade with Russia is vital for India’s agro industries. Sanctions will isolate Russia from the rest of the world and our ties will forever suffer.
Peaceful resolution of the issue between Russia and the west would be the best way forward. It will ensure that global order will continue to exist.
Thus, neither the west nor Russia would want the situation to escalate. World bodies such as UN must intervene and diffuse the situation.
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