Why the surge in earthquakes lately? Could a bigger one be next ?

• The death toll from the 7.7 magnitude earthquake in Myanmar has surpassed 2,700, with thousands injured, according to local media reports on Tuesday.
• Senior General. Min Aung Hlaing, the head of Myanmar''s military government, stated at a forum in Naypyitaw that 2,719 deaths have been confirmed, along with 4,521 injuries and 441 people still missing, according to Western News online
• It seems like earthquakes have become more frequent lately, causing massive destruction and tragic loss of life.

Does this indicate that an even more powerful earthquake could strike soon, potentially leading to catastrophic devastation on a global scale?

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) explains that short-term fluctuations in seismic activity are a normal part of the natural variation in earthquake rates.

• “An increase or decrease in global seismicity does not necessarily indicate that a large earthquake is about to occur,” the agency says.
• The ComCat earthquake catalogue has shown a rise in recorded earthquakes in recent years, but this is not due to a higher number of earthquakes—it’s because there are now more seismic instruments in place, allowing for the detection and recording of more earthquakes.

Why it feels like earthquakes are on the rise

• The British Geological Survey suggests several reasons why it may appear that we are encountering more earthquakes.
• Increased visibility of earthquakes in populated areas: Earthquakes that occur in densely populated regions are more likely to grab attention than those in remote areas. When a series of earthquakes strikes population centres, it can give the impression that their frequency has risen.
•  Additionally, as the global population grows, more people are living in earthquake-prone areas, which means that while the total number of earthquakes may stay the same, their impact is greater.
• Earthquake clustering: Although earthquake occurrence generally follows a steady long-term average, seismic activity often happens in clusters due to the random nature of tectonic processes. People tend to notice these clusters of activity, but they don''t typically observe the quieter periods in between, nor do they remember past clusters once they’re over.
• Improved global communication: Advances in global communication have made it possible to receive immediate updates on significant earthquakes from around the world. This means more people are now aware of earthquakes and their devastating consequences, leading to greater public recognition of seismic events.

Some statistics of Previous Earthquake :

• Long-term data (since 1900) indicates that, on average, there are 16 major earthquakes each year, including 15 magnitude 7 quakes and 1 magnitude 8 or greater. Over the past 40-50 years, we''ve exceeded this average about a dozen times.
• The highest total occurred in 2010, with 23 major quakes. However, in some years, the total was significantly lower, such as in 1989 (6 major quakes) and 1988 (7 major quakes), both well below the long-term average of 16.

 Recent earthquakes over magnitude 7

• March 30, 2025 – Tonga Earthquake (M7.0): The earthquake west of the Tonga Trench resulted from reverse faulting, with rupture occurring on either a steeply dipping reverse fault or a shallowly dipping thrust fault. Given the depth and location, the shallowly dipping thrust fault at the plate interface is the more likely source. This event was primarily caused by subduction zone activity in the region.
• March 28, 2025 – Myanmar Earthquake (M7.7): This earthquake occurred due to strike-slip faulting along the India-Eurasia plate boundary. The rupture likely took place on the right-lateral Sagaing Fault, a major tectonic feature in the region. The finite fault solution indicates motion along a north-striking right-lateral fault, confirming its association with the ongoing tectonic activity between the Indian and Sunda plates.
• February 8, 2025 – Cayman Islands Earthquake (M7.6): This event was triggered by strike-slip faulting near the North America–Caribbean plate boundary. The rupture occurred along a steeply dipping structure, with possible right-lateral or left-lateral motion. The tectonic movement between the North America and Caribbean plates at a rate of approximately 20 mm per year was the primary driver of this earthquake.
• January 7, 2025 – Tibetan Plateau Earthquake (M7.1): The earthquake in the southern Tibetan Plateau was caused by normal faulting at shallow depths within the Eurasian plate, north of the Himalayan mountain boundary. The fault responsible was oriented perpendicular to the plate boundary, indicating crustal extension in the region. This type of faulting is typical for intra-plate earthquakes in areas experiencing tectonic stress adjustments.

6 deadliest earthquakes since 1950

• 2010 Haiti Earthquake: The Port-au-Prince metropolitan area was devastated, with an estimated 300,000 deaths and 1.5 million people left homeless. The earthquake caused widespread destruction and a humanitarian crisis.
• 2008 Sichuan Earthquake: The earthquake killed nearly 90,000 people, injured 375,000, and left over 5 million homeless. More than half of Beichuan town was destroyed due to the seismic impact and water release from a nearby lake.
• 2005 Kashmir Earthquake: A magnitude-7.6 quake struck Pakistan-administered Kashmir and NWFP, also affecting India and Afghanistan. At least 79,000 people died, and 32,000 buildings collapsed. It was among the most destructive earthquakes of modern times.
• 2004 Indian Ocean Earthquake & Tsunami: A magnitude-9.1 undersea earthquake struck off Sumatra on December 26, 2004. The tsunami waves, some reaching 30 feet (9 meters) high, spread across 13 countries, killing at least 230,000 people. Indonesia, Sri Lanka, India, Maldives, and Thailand suffered the worst damage.
• 1976 Tangshan Earthquake (China): On July 28, 1976, a magnitude-7.5 earthquake nearly wiped out the coal-mining city of Tangshan. The official death toll was 242,000, but estimates suggest up to 655,000 deaths. At least 700,000 were injured, and destruction extended as far as Beijing.
• 1970 Great Peruvian Earthquake: On May 31, 1970, a massive earthquake off western Peru triggered landslides, collapsing many poorly built structures. Around 70,000 people died, and significant infrastructure damage resulted

RBI Issues April 2025 Policy Update

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), in its 54th meeting and the first of the financial year 2025–26, unanimously decided to reduce the policy repo rate by 25 basis points, bringing it down to 6 per cent with immediate effect. The repo rate is the rate at which the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) lends money to commercial banks, and a cut in this rate is aimed at boosting lending and investment.
•  This decision comes at a time when global economic conditions are becoming increasingly uncertain.
• Trade tensions have resurfaced, leading to a decline in crude oil prices, weakening of the US dollar, softening bond yields, and corrections in equity markets. While central banks across the world are adjusting their policies to address domestic concerns, they are doing so cautiously.
• Within India, the outlook has shown signs of improvement. Inflation, particularly food inflation, has declined more than expected, offering some relief, though global and weather-related risks remain. Growth is recovering after a weak first half in the previous financial year, but it still falls short of the country’s potential.
•  The Monetary Policy Report of April 2025, released alongside the MPC resolution, also outlines the GDP growth forecast and inflation projection for the coming months. This year also marks a milestone for the RBI as it completes 90 years since its establishment on 1st April 1935.
• Over the decades, it has evolved into a full-service central bank, balancing its roles of managing inflation, supporting growth, and ensuring financial stability.

Key Policy Decisions

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously decided to reduce the policy repo rate by 25 basis points, bringing it down to 6 per cent with immediate effect. The repo rate is the rate at which the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) lends money to commercial banks.
• As a result, the Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) rate under the Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF) has been adjusted to 5.75 per cent. The SDF allows banks to park excess funds with the RBI without any collateral.
• The Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate have both been revised to 6.25 per cent. MSF stands for Marginal Standing Facility, a provision made by the RBI that enables scheduled commercial banks to obtain overnight liquidity if inter-bank funds completely dry up. It is an emergency facility that allows banks to borrow at a rate higher than the repo rate.
• These rate adjustments are consistent with the RBI’s objective of achieving the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation target of 4 per cent, within a flexible band of ±2 per cent, while also supporting economic growth.

Growth Assessment

• The Reserve Bank of India has projected real GDP growth at 6.5 per cent for 2025–26, maintaining the same rate as estimated for 2024–25, following a strong expansion of 9.2 per cent in the preceding year. The quarterly projections stand at 6.5 per cent in Q1, 6.7 per cent in Q2, 6.6 per cent in Q3, and 6.3 per cent in Q4. This marks a downward revision of 20 basis points from the February estimate, reflecting heightened global volatility.
•  Agriculture remains on a positive footing, supported by healthy reservoir levels and robust crop production, which is expected to sustain rural demand. Manufacturing is showing early signs of revival amid improved business sentiment, and the services sector continues to demonstrate resilience.
•  On the investment side, activity is gaining pace on the back of higher capacity utilisation, continued government focus on infrastructure, and strong balance sheets of banks and corporates.
• Easing financial conditions have also aided this recovery. While services exports are likely to remain steady, merchandise exports could face headwinds from global uncertainties and trade disruptions. Looking ahead, the RBI has projected real GDP growth at 6.7 per cent for 2026–27, suggesting continued recovery momentum.

Inflation Outlook

• Headline inflation eased during January and February 2025, driven by a sharp decline in food prices. With uncertainties around the rabi crop largely resolved, and second advance estimates indicating record wheat output and higher pulse production than last year, food inflation is expected to soften further.
• This favourable trend is supported by robust kharif arrivals and a sharp fall in inflation expectations over the next three and twelve months, as reflected in recent surveys. The decline in crude oil prices has further strengthened the disinflationary outlook. Accordingly, Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation for 2025–26 is projected at 4.0 per cent, with quarterly estimates at 3.6 per cent in Q1, 3.9 per cent in Q2, 3.8 per cent in Q3, and 4.4 per cent in Q4.
• While the inflation outlook appears stable, global uncertainties and the possibility of weather-related supply shocks continue to pose upside risks to the inflation path. The Reserve Bank of India has assumed a normal monsoon in framing its projections, and it considers the risks to be evenly balanced at this stage.

External Sector Snapshot

• Robust Services and Remittances: Services exports remained strong in January–February 2025, led by software, business, and transportation services. Net services and remittance receipts are expected to remain in large surplus, cushioning the merchandise trade deficit.
• Sustainable Current Account Deficit: The current account deficit (CAD) for both 2024–25 and 2025–26 is projected to stay well within sustainable levels, supported by resilient external inflows.
• Mixed Investment Flows: While gross FDI remained strong due to stable macroeconomic fundamentals, net FDI moderated because of higher repatriations and outward investments. Net FPI inflows touched USD 1.7 billion in 2024–25, driven by debt inflows despite equity outflows.
• Healthy Forex Reserves: As of April 4, 2025, India’s foreign exchange reserves stood at USD 676.3 billion, offering an import cover of nearly 11 months and reflecting the strength of the external sector.

Liquidity and Financial Market Conditions

• Liquidity Shortage and RBI Intervention: In January 2025, the banking system faced a shortage of funds, known as a liquidity deficit. To address this, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) provided up to ₹3.1 lakh crore on 23rd January through the Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF) – a tool that allows banks to borrow money from the RBI for short periods to manage temporary mismatches in cash flow.
• Improved Liquidity Position: The RBI later infused about ₹6.9 lakh crore into the system, and increased government spending in late March helped further. These actions improved the situation, and by 7th April 2025, the system had a liquidity surplus of ₹1.5 lakh crore – meaning there was more money available in banks for lending and investment.
• Softening of Market Rates: With more liquidity available, the Weighted Average Call Rate (WACR) – the average interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight – declined and hovered close to the repo rate, which is the interest rate at which the RBI lends money to commercial banks. This indicates stable short-term borrowing costs.
• Lower Funding Costs in Debt Market: The difference between interest rates on Commercial Papers (CPs) and Certificates of Deposit (CDs) – short-term borrowing instruments used by companies and banks – and the 91-day Treasury Bill – a short-term government security – reduced. This narrowing of spreads means that borrowing became cheaper in financial markets. The RBI has stated it will continue to monitor these conditions and take action as needed to maintain sufficient liquidity.

Conclusion

• The Monetary Policy Report of April 2025, released alongside the 54th meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee, reflects a balanced approach by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to support growth while maintaining price stability.
•  The decision to cut the policy repo rate by 25 basis points to 6 per cent is underpinned by easing inflation, particularly in food prices, and a gradual recovery in economic activity.
• With GDP growth for 2025–26 projected at 6.5 per cent and inflation expected to remain within the 4 per cent target band, the report signals cautious optimism despite global uncertainties.
• On the external front, robust services exports and strong remittance inflows have helped cushion the merchandise trade deficit, keeping the current account deficit at sustainable levels.
• Meanwhile, improved system liquidity, lower short-term borrowing costs, and stable foreign exchange reserves underscore the resilience of India’s financial system. The RBI has affirmed its commitment to closely monitor evolving conditions and take timely, calibrated measures to preserve macroeconomic and financial stability

Why India needs non-tariff barriers in agricultural trade

• The National Trade Estimate Report of the United States has raised concerns that non-tariff barriers by India make it near impossible to export dairy and poultry products besides staple grains such as rice and wheat. Sandip Das explains that the ring-fencing by India is due to food security imperatives, vulnerability of the millions of marginal farmers and dietary preferences

 What the US report says about non-tariff barriers imposed by India

• THE REPORT OUTLINED concerns about the science and risk basis for India’s sanitary and phytosanitary-related trade barriers to food and agricultural imports. For instance, it says India requires dairy products intended for food be derived from animals that have not consumed feeds containing internal organs, blood meal, or tissues of ruminant or porcine origin and that exporting countries certify to these conditions, “which lack a discernable animal health or human health justification”.
• On India’s hesitation to approve genetically modified feed and food products, it says that New Delhi does not appear to take into account science-based approval processes for genetically engineered (GE) products in exporting countries
• India’s minimum support prices (MSP) for major grains such as wheat and rice also drew attention, with the report saying it results in overproduction, limited demand for imports, and artificial export competitiveness.

What are the reservations against GM products?

• INDIA HAD FIRST approved Genetically Modified (GM) cotton way back in 2002. Since 2008, no new varieties of GM cotton seed have been approved. BT brinjal was approved in 2012 by the Genetic Engineering Approval Committee (GEAC, which was later converted into the Genetic Engineering Appraisal Committee with truncated powers), but it was shelved by the government later citing environmental concern
• Last year, a Supreme Court division bench has issued a split verdict on petitions challenging the approval given by the Genetic Engineering Appraisal Committee and the ministry of environment and forests to commercially cultivate and release a genetically modified mustard variety— HT Mustard
  DMH-11. Agriculture minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan also recently said that GM technology is ‘like playing with nature”, even if it helps increase productivity.

Protecting the dairy sector

• PER THE NATIONAL Account Statistics, 2024, India’s milk output by value accounts for the highest share in agriculture produce and, even more than the combined value of paddy and wheat. R S Sodhi, president, Indian Dairy Association, says the dairy sector should not be unnecessarily tinkered with as it has been growing steadily over the last few decades. He says the sector should not be seen only from a trade perspective as around 100 million farmers are engaged in dairy and allied sectors.
• Industry sources say higher import duties on skimmed milk powder are justified as a typical Indian dairy farmer has 2-3 animals against an average herd size of 500 animals in major milk producing countries like the US, Australia and New Zealand, which reduces their cost of production.
• Meenesh Shah, chairman, National Dairy Development Board (NDDB), says that global dairy players, even if they were allowed to operate in India, would find it very difficult due to the high costs of logistics. Dairy industry officials have indicated that there are no discussions at the moment about reducing import duties on dairy products.
• India also requires that imported dairy products must come from animals not fed animal-derived feed, a norm that stems from religious and cultural sensitivities of a large section of the vegetarian population here.

Domestic poultry & feed markets

• THE US HAS been insisting on a liberalised imports regime for soyabean (primarily used for animal feed) and chicken legs for many years.
• Any cut in import duties on chicken legs (currently 100%) should be considered after taking into account the needs of the domestic poultry industry which offers employment to over 5 lakh families, trade sources say. Higher duty structure is aimed at protecting the domestic industry which is growing at  around 8% annually.
• For animal feed, India has imposed a few non-tariff barriers such as ban on GM crops and compulsory certification requirement. In 2021, the government had allowed import of 1.2 mn tonne of GM soyameal for chicken feed on an exceptional basis due to high domestic feed prices.

International trade in rice, wheat

• INDIA HAS BEEN the biggest exporter of rice since 2012. India did impose restrictions on rice exports in 2023, which it has since removed. Being one of the largest producers of rice, there is no possibility of imports though import duty has been kept at 70%.
• In April 2019, import duty on wheat was increased to 40% from 30% to boost procurement by the government agencies. Many traders from southern India have been calling for reducing this to facilitate imports as transportation cost of wheat to the southern states from Madhya Pradesh is high while global prices often rule below the minimum support price (MSP) offered to farmers.
• Though export of wheat is banned to maintain domestic supply, at times the government allows it to meet the food security needs of certain countries.

Mahavir Jayanti 2025 — Why is Jaina philosophy important for UPSC CSE ?

• Mahavir Jayanti, also referred to as Mahaveer Janma Kalyanak, is celebrated to commemorate the birth anniversary of Lord Mahavira, the 24th and the last ‘Thirthankara’ of Jainism. This year it is celebrated on 10th April.
• Lord Mahavir was born to King Siddhartha and Queen Trishala in Kundalagrama in Bihar in 540 BCE. His mother, Trishala, was the sister of Licchavi chief Chetaka. He renounced his crown and spent 12 years as an ascetic away from all kinds of worldly pleasures at the age of 30.

Key Takeaways:

• Mahavir spent 30 years travelling across India to teach his philosophy of Ahimsa (non-violence), Satya (truth), Asteya (non-stealing), Brahmacharya (chastity), and Aparigraha (non-attachment), which later became the fundamental principles of Jainism.
• The Jaina doctrine of anekantavada (manifold nature of reality) and syadavada (the doctrine of maybe) insists that reality cannot be grasped entirely as it is complex and has multiple aspects. Everything that exists has three aspects – substance (dravya), quality (guna), and mode (paryaya).
• About souls (jivas), Jaina philosophy believes that all souls are equal. All souls are equipped with four infinites (anantacatustaya) i.e, infinite knowledge, infinite faith, infinite power, and infinite bliss.
• It believes that the cycle of birth and rebirth is linked to karma. Jains held that even unintentional activities generate karma, they sought to avoid not only those modes of livelihood that clearly and always cause harm to the living, but also any which might do so incidentally or occasionally.
• Almost from its inception, a number of common occupations including agriculture, animal transportation and animal by-product trades were thus deemed unsuitable for a practising Jain.
• The triratna (three gems) of Jainism, also called the path of liberation, consists of right faith (samyag-darshana), right knowledge (samyag-jnana), and right conduct (samyag-charitra). There are five great vows (panchamahavrata) for monks and nuns that needs to be followed- observing non-violence in thoughts, speech and action (ahimsa); not to utter any falsehood (satya/sunrita); not to take what is not given, i.e., not to steal (asteya); renouncing of all passions (brahmacharya); and non-possession, to call nothing one’s own (aparigraha).

Sects of Jainism

• According to Upinder Singh, “At some point in its early history, perhaps by c. 300 CE, the Jaina sangha came to be divided into two sects—the Digambara (sky-clad) and the Shvetambara (white-clad) sects.” According to the Jaina tradition, at the end of the reign of Chandragupta Maurya, a serious famine led to the migration of a section of Jain monks from the Ganges to the Deccan.
• According to some accounts, Bhadrabahu was the leader of the migrating group that spent 12 years in the Karnataka region. When the followers of Bhadrabahu came back to the region, they found that the northern monks, led by Sthulabhadra, had started wearing clothes. This led to the emergence of two sects of Jainas, Digambara (“Space-clad” i.e naked) and Shvetambaras (“White clad”).
• Digambara tradition holds that a woman has to be reborn as a man before she can attain salvation. The Shvetambaras, however, acknowledge the possibility of women attaining jina-hood.
• The earliest texts of Jainas were written in Ardh-Magadhi and collectively known as the Siddhanta or Agama. The Shvetambara canon includes the 12 Angas, Upangas, Prakirnas, Cheda Sutras, and Mula Sutras.
•  The angas were compiled at the council held at Pataliputra, according to Shvetambara tradition. The entire canon was supposedly compiled in the 5th or 6th century at a council held in Valabhi in Gujarat, presided over by Devarddhi Kshamashramana.
• Other important Jaina literature includes Jaina Puranas called Charitas by Shvetambaras. The life of the first tirthankara Rishabha is detailed in the Adi Purana (9th century).
• The 8th century Harivamsha Purana gives a Jaina version of the stories of the Kauravas, Pandavas, Krishna, Balarama, and others. In Parishishtaparvan (12th century) of Hemachandra history of the earliest Jaina teachers and certain details of political history were mentioned

 From Trump’s reciprocal tariffs announcement to 90-day pause: Everything in between

• Amid global pushback, US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs, however, China has been excluded from the pause, and instead, the tariff rate has been increased to 125%.
• The Asian markets bounced back on Thursday (April 10) after President Trump announced the pause on tariff.
• Earlier, on Monday (April 7) the Indian stock markets experienced a sharp fall in the wake of the trade war that is unfolding globally. The benchmark indices — Nifty 50 and Sensex — each lost more than 2.5 per cent of their value. This was the most they have fallen since the dip in the wake of the results of the general election in June last year. But what caused this decline?
•  At a fundamental level, the reason was pretty straightforward: the massive upending of global trade thanks to the unilateral announcement of punitive tariffs on the rest of the world by US President Donald Trump, which now has been paused for 90 days. Therefore, it becomes crucial to understand this issue from a broader perspective. 

Setting the Context: Trump’s Announcement of Reciprocal Tariffs

• US President Donald Trump celebrated April 2 as America’s “Liberation Day” by announcing “reciprocal tariffs” against all major trading partners. Two sets of tariffs were announced. One, a base tariff of 10% against all countries, which represents a sharp increase from the pre-Trump 2.0 tariff rate of around 2.5%.
•  Then there are country-specific tariffs, as shown in the table below. These tariffs were determined by estimating how much each of these countries charges on US goods and then halving that amount to calculate the “USA discounted reciprocal tariffs”.
• India has been hit with a country-specific tariff rate of 26%. Donald Trump also shared a report of the US Trade Department that gave details of why each country was being tariffed. The report was critical of the Government of India’s increasingly protectionist stance since 2014.
• However, US President Donald Trump Wednesday (April 9) paused reciprocal tariffs on 75 countries, including India, while imposing a steep 125 per cent tariff on China in response to its retaliatory measures.
• The implications of higher tariffs and the trade war initiated by Trump’s actions on the world economy and the Indian economy are only beginning to unfold. The recent decline in Indian stock markets and the change in monetary policy can be attributed to the uncertainty surrounding these tariffs.

Since the impact of US policies is felt around the world, it is important to understand how countries are responding to Trump’s retaliatory tariffs.

• “There are three differing templates emerging of how countries are responding to US President Donald Trump’s retaliatory tariffs. On one end is the Chinese playbook of “resolute opposition” and tit-for-tat retaliation”
•  China’s resolute opposition: Beijing will impose 125 per cent tariffs on US goods from Saturday (April 12), up from the 84 per cent previously announced, news agency Reuters quoted the Chinese finance ministry said on Friday.
•  This comes after the Trump administration decided to pause tariffs for 90 days on many countries, but hit China with a 145 percent tariff amid the ongoing trade wars.
• Japan opts for negotiated settlement: Japan seems to be on the other end of the spectrum, getting ready to dispatch a team to negotiate with Washington — one of the early movers in this game. US President Trump said Monday that he had spoken with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and confirmed that Japan is dispatching a team to negotiate on trade with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, Reuters reported.
• EU considering both options: The response from the European Union slots somewhere in between the reactions from Japan and China. The trade ministers of the 27-nation bloc had gathered in Luxembourg to discuss their response to Washington’s new trade regime.
• Given that the trans-Atlantic trade relationship is the biggest in the world, worth about 1.5 trillion Euros, there is considerable worry across European capitals. EU officials, however, came out to say that they would rather negotiate than fight the US on tariffs, but in parallel, they are preparing a potential list for retaliation and other measures for retaliation.

India’s stance

• Meanwhile, reiterating it’s stance of ‘studying’ silence over trade tariffs, India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) said it is “studying the implications” of US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods, as both nations work toward finalising a bilateral trade agreement. MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal stated that discussions between the Indian and US trade teams are ongoing.
• Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal Wednesday (April 9) urged exporters not to panic and reassured them that India is working towards the “right mix and right balance” in its proposed trade agreement with the US.  Goyal also highlighted the opportunities associated with the tariffs.
• “However, as far as India is concerned, there is potential for increased manufacturing and job creation, as India could attract major players in the global supply chain. The country has established itself as a trusted and reliable partner and a predictable, business-friendly destination,” 
• India and the US are currently negotiating a bilateral trade agreement aimed at more than doubling trade – from the current $191 billion to $500 billion by 2023. The first phase of the deal is expected to be concluded by autumn this year.”

 How USA’s economic policies — from the Federal Reserve to President Trump’s trade actions — impact the Indian market?

• As the world’s biggest economy, the United States has a significant influence on global financial systems. Whether it’s a shift in its monetary policy or a tweak in fiscal spending, every move made in Washington resonates across global markets — and India is no exception. American economic policy directly or indirectly affects India’s economic policymaking and market behaviour. Therefore, it becomes important to understand some of the components of the US economy and their effects on Indian economy. 

Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy

• The United States Federal Reserve (henceforth just ‘the Fed’) is responsible for the country’s monetary policy, and its decisions have an impact that goes far beyond the country’s geographical borders.
• Among the most affected are emerging economies like India. This is not just due to the US being the world’s biggest economy but also because the US dollar is the world’s most trusted and traded currency. Several countries hold US dollars as assets.
• The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy affects India in different ways. For instance, as India is a capital-scarce economy and is always looking to incentivise foreigners to invest in India, if Fed cuts rate, it can incentivise global investors to borrow in the US and invest in India — be it in stocks, debt, or in the form of foreign direct investment (FDI).
• But on the other hand, when the Fed raises its policy rates, the difference between the interest rates of the two countries narrows, thus making countries such as India less attractive for the currency carry trade.

 Tariff Policy

• As the US is India’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade in 2023 crossing $117 billion. India is also vulnerable to changes in American trade policy, as the US market is India’s largest export market for both goods and services. Most importantly, the US is the only country with which India has a trade surplus, making it a crucial source of US dollar earnings. In this context, the tariff policy of the US also affects the Indian economy on multiple fronts. 
• Thus, we also see that in the wake of fears that higher tariff rates may lead to inflation, an increase in trade tensions and a lower growth in the world economy the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) six-member Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) in its policy review on April 9 (Wednesday) took the decision to cut the repo rate – the key policy rate – by 25 basis points (bps) to 6 per cent. 
• In conclusion, the impact of the US’s economic policy can be seen on multiple fronts of the Indian economy, which makes it highly relevant to stay updated on the US’s economic decision

 Digital Threat Report 2024 

• Recently, the Digital Threat Report 2024 for the Banking, Financial Services, and Insurance (BFSI) sector was released by the Indian Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT-In), the Computer Security Incident Response Team in the Finance sector (CSIRT-Fin), and SISA, a global Cybersecurity company. The report has flagged cryptocurrency as a new frontier for cyber threats. It states that while threat actors initially used Bitcoin for illicit transactions, they have since migrated to other cryptocurrencies like Monero (XMR).
• The report acknowledged the targeting of crypto exchanges by threat actors as a new strategy. WazirX, one of India’s major crypto exchanges, was hit by a cyber attack where hackers allegedly stole nearly half of the platform’s crypto reserves worth more than $230 million. More recently, hackers stole digital assets worth over $1.5 billion from Dubai-based crypto exchange Bybit, in what is said to be the largest crypto heist till date.
• The report pointed out a new malware variant that scans “infected environments” for crypto wallets or the keys that secure them. It extracts these keys to gain unauthorized access to victims’ crypto assets, leading to financial losses.
•  Deepfakes and AI-generated content are “potent tools for intrusion, particularly in social engineering attacks.” “Deep fake voice and video allow cyber perpetrators to mimic the voices and appearances of executives, employees, or trusted partners,” the report stated.
• It said that the threat of LLM (large language model) prompt hacking was much more prevalent in applications that host LLMs locally as opposed to developer APIs by providers such as OpenAI and DeepSeek.
•  However, jailbreaking attempts have been successful against OpenAI’s ChatGPT in the past. Jailbraking is the process of removing software restrictions imposed by the device’s manufacturer to install unauthorized software, modify the device’s operating system, and access hidden features. For instance, in 2023, ChatGPT users discovered that they could bypass the AI chatbot’s safeguards by asking it to pretend to be a dead grandmother. This technique came to be known as the ‘grandma exploit’. 
• Beyond jailbreaking, the report noted that malicious LLMs such as WormGPT and FraudGPT are capable of writing convincing phishing emails, coding highly effective malware programmes, and automating the development of exploits.
•  In its suggestions for policymakers, the report recommends implementing clear and comprehensive AI regulations to ensure the responsible deployment of AI and ML in the BFSI sector. It also recommended that companies in the BFSI sector subject the APIs within AI-native applications to security testing in order to uncover hidden vulnerabilities.

India’s intiative for Cybersecurity

• The changing geo-political and economic shifts have compelled the Indian government to take active steps to evolve in cyberspace. This includes key initiatives such as the National Cyber Coordination Centre, Cyber Surakshit Bharat, and National Critical Information Infrastructure Protection Centre. CERT-In, constituted in 20024, is the nodal agency for responding to computer security incidents when they occur.
• In 2018, the Ministry of Home Affairs established the Indian Cyber Crime Coordination Centre (I4C) as a national-level coordination centre to address cybercrime-related issues. In September 2024, four I4C platforms — Cyber Fraud Mitigation Centre (CFMC), the ‘Samanvaya’ platform, a Cyber Commandos programme and a Suspect Registry — were inaugurated by Home Minister
• The centre was able to decline six lakh fraudulent transactions and saved Rs 1,800 crore through Suspect Registry.
• In recent years, the government has also increased the budget allocation to cybersecurity. However, challenges remain. There is a need for effective utilisation, transparency, and accountability in fund allocation. Collaboration between the government, industry, and academia is vital for a robust approach

Why Genome India Project matters

• The first part of India’s ambitious programme to map the genetic diversity of its people is now complete, and its data are ready to be used. The Genome India Project (GIP) has catalogued entire gene sequences of 10,000 individuals from 83 population groups. This database will eventually be expanded significantly, but it is already a precious set of information with important implications in health and medicine, and some other areas as well.
• The preliminary findings of GIP, in which 20 Indian academic and research institutions, and more than 100 scientists, were involved, have just been published in the journal Nature Genetics. The analysis of the data is still ongoing, and the full results are planned to be published next year.
• The genome database will open up the possibility of personalised medicine, and faster and efficient diagnostics. It will also reveal information about the evolutionary history and migrations of population groups within India, and how they have adapted themselves to local climate and environment.
• Getting the genome
• Most importantly, the genome database would help improve human health. The genome sequences have been prepared after obtaining blood samples from individuals.
• The full genome of an individual means getting the exact order in which four nucleotide molecules in the human DNA are arranged in an approximately three-billion-long sequence. These four nucleotide molecules — adenine, thymine, cytosine, and guanine, or simply A, T, C and G — along with a phosphate molecule and a sugar molecule, form the long double-helix DNA strands which is essentially the genetic blueprint of the individual.
• More than 99.9% of the nucleotide sequence is the same in all human beings. It is the 0.1% difference that makes a person unique, not just in outer appearance — height, or facial features — but also in behavioural tendencies. This means that in every individual, about three to four million nucleotide molecules are uniquely placed in the sequence, and this is what gives rise to the diversity.
• People within a closed and isolated population group are likely to have fewer variations in their nucleotide sequences. Whereas, a heterogeneous population will show greater genetic diversity.
• A Most genetic variations — the out-of-place, or unique, instances of A, T, C or G nucleotides in the full gene sequence — are benign. They do not result in any noticeable difference in the individual. Only a small fraction, 1-2%, are critical, their placement in the sequence affecting appearance, traits or health. It is these critical parts of the sequence that are of maximum interest to scientists.
• The GIP database
• Through a project like GIP, scientists collect and store what is known as germline sequence — the nucleotide sequence that a person was conceived and born with. Over time, the genetic sequence of a person changes, with every cycle of cell division introducing a few more variations, called mutations.
• Germline sequences are obtained from white blood cells that are relatively better at preserving the original sequence during cell division. Among other things, the unique parts of this germline sequence could offer clues about an individual’s predisposition towards certain diseases or disorders. It can indicate, for example, not just why a particular person might have developed a certain disorder, but also why some lines of treatment might not be very effective in this case. This could lead to the evolution of personalised medicine, where a patient is not administered a general treatment but gets a tailor-made solution for the disease or disorder.
• Sometimes population groups as a whole might be predisposed to certain diseases because all the individuals in the group share the same pattern in the consequential part of the sequence. For example, the widespread prevalence of diabetes in the Indian population is likely linked to the genetic makeup of the population. This kind of information can be handy in developing population-specific drugs.
• Mapping the genetic diversity of the entire population, which is what the GIP seeks to do, can help develop health policies and targeted interventions, particularly for rare diseases found only in the Indian population.
• Population evolution
• The GIP can also contribute to a better understanding of population history and evolution. The germline sequences are what an individual receives from the parents. There is a way to establish ancestry and parentage by studying the sequences. Genetic variations that are more widespread in the population are likely to have emerged much earlier, while those that are found in just a few individuals are quite likely to be new developments. DNA from fossils and isolated tribes, which have undergone relatively fewer changes over generations, fill up important pieces of the overall puzzle.
• By comparing the genomes of a large number of people, over several generations and belonging to different ethnic, geographical, and linguistic groups, scientists can gather a lot of information about the history and evolution of populations. For instance, scientists can get evidence for how populations moved from one place to another, socialised and intermingled with other groups through marriages, and adapted to local conditions. This kind of information helps a great deal in resolving the identity issue — who we are, and where we come from — which is an eternal curiosity of human beings.
• The GIP is the Indian equivalent of the Human Genome Project which has tried to map the entire human genome at the global scale. That is a two-decade older project but it did not have enough samples from the Indian region to provide good information about the Indian population. The large number, and the diversity, of Indian population groups demanded a similar exercise focused on this region. The GIP is expected to continue and add many more samples in the coming year to make it a comprehensive gene bank of Indian populations

Punjab bans sale of hybrid paddy seeds: Everything you need to know

• The Punjab government has banned the sale of hybrid paddy seeds (non-Basmati rice), citing that they are being sold at high prices in the state. The government has also said these seeds lead to a higher percentage of broken rice during milling — the process of removing the outer husk and bran layers from paddy (unmilled rice) to produce edible, white rice — compared to the standards set by the Food Corporation of India (FCI).
• The two issues have resulted in farmers receiving lower prices for their produce, according to the government. However, some of the farmers in Punjab and experts have opposed the ban.

But first, why do Punjab farmers use hybrid paddy seeds?

• There are approximately eight hybrid paddy varieties officially recommended for cultivation in Punjab. Private seed companies such as Savannah, VNR, Corteva, and Bayer offer these approved hybrids in the state. Some of the commonly grown varieties include: Sava 127, Sava 134, Sava 7501, 27P22, VNR 203 and others.
• Farmers argue that hybrid varieties offer significant benefits over traditional ones, including shorter growth duration and higher yields. Even though Punjab Agricultural University (PAU), Ludhiana, has developed several short and mid-duration varieties, farmers claim hybrid paddy seeds still outperform them.
• “These varieties also mature faster, saving water,” said Baldev Singh, a farmer from Muktsar Sahib. “But more importantly, they yield 5–6 quintals more per acre compared to the other varieties. We get an average of 35–36 quintals per acre, and sometimes even more, which means we earn Rs 13,000 to Rs 14,000 more per acre. These varieties also produce less stubble,” he said.
• These hybrid varieties, with a growth duration of around 125 to 130 days, consistently yield between 35 to 40 quintals per acre, surpassing both short- and long-duration varieties currently available in the state.

Why has the government issued the ban?

• During the 2024–25 Kharif marketing season, rice millers — responsible for storing and milling government-procured paddy — across Punjab refused to accept hybrid rice varieties. These millers argued that the out turn ratio (OTR) — a measure of the efficiency of the rice milling process — of these varieties was lower than that mandated by the FCI.
• While the FCI prescribes a minimum OTR of 67%, the millers claimed, the OTR of hybrid rice varieties was between 60% and 63%.
• This shortfall means millers have to bear the financial loss from their own pockets. As a result, in 2024, the Punjab government had to persuade millers to store these varieties after much resistance. However, this time to avoid such a situation, the government has banned the sale of hybrid paddy seeds before the start of the sowing season.
• Notably, in 2019, the Punjab Agriculture Department issued a blanket ban on the sale of hybrid paddy seeds. The ban, however, was short-lived and later amended to allow the sale of those hybrid seeds that had been officially notified by the Centre for cultivation in Punjab.
• The latest ban, however, does not clarify whether the sale of notified and recommended hybrid seeds is permitted or not.

Do hybrid paddy seeds really have lower OTR?

• Experts refute the millers’ claim that notified hybrid varieties, which are widely tested before launch, result in lower OTR. “Low OTR is not the fault of the seed itself,” they said. “It’s more about harvesting time and post-harvest handling.”
• Optimal OTR is achieved when paddy is harvested at 22–23% moisture, sun-dried to 16–17% for FCI procurement, and finally milled at 13–14% moisture. Delayed procurement and drying due to logistical challenges lead to moisture loss and excessive breakage, thereby lowering OTR.
• They also emphasised that many rice mills in Punjab still use outdated machinery, which further contributes to poor OTR results. Millers need to upgrade their processing technology to match modern standards, according to experts.
• “Hybrid rice varieties are widely cultivated across the world due to their advantages in yield, water conservation, and reduced stubble burning. Experts warn that Punjab should not set a misleading narrative against these scientifically validated and government-notified varieties,
• The Punjab government has banned the sale of hybrid paddy seeds (non-Basmati rice), citing that they are being sold at high prices in the state. The government has also said these seeds lead to a higher percentage of broken rice during milling — the process of removing the outer husk and bran layers from paddy (unmilled rice) to produce edible, white rice — compared to the standards set by the Food Corporation of India (FCI).
• The two issues have resulted in farmers receiving lower prices for their produce, according to the government. However, some of the farmers in Punjab and experts have opposed the baN.

What does the law say?

• Industry experts contend that Punjab’s approach contradicts provisions under the Seed Act, 1966, and the Seed Control Order, 1983, both of which are under the jurisdiction of the Centre. These laws empower seed companies to sell hybrid varieties that have been officially notified by the Centre.
• “In the case of Punjab, the government has tried to ban all hybrid rice varieties — including those that are recommended and notified. This clearly conflicts with the Seed Act and the Seed Control Order,” .
•  Sections 6 and 7 of the Seed Act made it clear that once a seed variety was notified by the Centre — including hybrid seeds — it becomes a legally approved variety. The state governments do not have the legal authority to arbitrarily ban the sale of such notified seeds.
• “The role of state governments is to ensure that the seeds sold within their territory conform to the standards of purity, germination, and quality as outlined by the Act. States may regulate the sale through certification and inspection mechanisms, but cannot prohibit the sale of centrally approved varieties,”.