The 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict marked a pivotal moment in the evolution of modern warfare, highlighting the critical role of drones in combat operations. This shift was further emphasized during India and Pakistan’s Operation Sindoor in May 2023, when unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs) transitioned from mere reconnaissance tools to decisive weapons capable of precision strikes. This article explores the progression of drone warfare, India’s commitment to modernizing its UAV fleet, and the strategic potential within the Indo-Pacific drone market amid the waning dominance of the United States.

India’s Drive for Drone Modernization

In the aftermath of Operation Sindoor, India accelerated its efforts to upgrade its unmanned aerial capabilities. In 2024, it acquired 31 MQ-9B Reapers from the United States, including the SkyGuardian and SeaGuardian variants, enhancing its maritime surveillance and strengthening strategic partnerships. However, these acquisitions address only part of the broad spectrum of India’s defense requirements, especially given the challenges posed by high-altitude contested borders with Pakistan and China.

India’s needs encompass not only high-altitude, long-range fixed-wing drones capable of carrying heavy payloads for precision strikes but also smaller, cost-efficient UAVs for specialized missions. Presently, the Indian UAV fleet relies heavily on older Israeli platforms such as the Harop loitering munition and the Heron medium-altitude drones. While effective, these systems lag behind the latest global advancements. Much of India’s inventory consists of legacy imports predating the last decade, with only a limited number of indigenous systems in service, underscoring the urgency for broader and faster upgrades.

Shifting Strategies in Drone Procurement

Traditionally, India has depended on procuring advanced drones from the U.S., but recent trends show a strategic shift towards acquiring American components like engines and electronic payloads rather than complete systems. Globally, the UAV market is dominated by the U.S., China, Türkiye, and Israel. Nevertheless, American drones have faced criticism for falling behind Russian and Chinese counterparts.

Strict compliance with the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) has restricted the U.S. to a mere 8% share of the export market by the end of 2023, trailing far behind China and Türkiye. However, recent policy reforms might help the U.S. regain some ground. Meanwhile, India is addressing capability gaps through a combination of imports, joint ventures, and domestic production, largely relying on Israeli and select European suppliers. Due to strained relations with China and Türkiye, these countries are unlikely to serve as reliable sources for critical defense technology.

Looking ahead, India must not only secure its UAV needs but also position itself as a potential major supplier of fixed-wing drones for the Indo-Pacific region, leveraging its growing technological expertise.

China’s Expanding Influence and India’s Strategic Opening

Several Indo-Pacific nations—including Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan—continue to grapple with tensions involving China, particularly over disputed maritime territories. For these countries, maintaining robust Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA) is essential to counter China’s ‘gray-zone’ tactics, which involve deploying coast guard vessels and maritime militias to assert territorial claims covertly, while safeguarding fisheries, energy exploration areas, and sovereign rights.

‘Gray-zone’ tactics refer to coercive actions that exist in a space between peace and outright war, creating complex security challenges. While Israel is unlikely to be a dependable defense supplier due to its focus on ongoing conflicts in West Asia, Türkiye has emerged globally as a supplier of affordable, high-performance drones. However, given India’s adversarial relationship with Türkiye, New Delhi has a strategic interest in limiting Ankara’s influence in the region through proactive drone diplomacy.

Many Indo-Pacific countries share similar geographic and operational challenges with India, such as the need for high-altitude border surveillance and extensive maritime monitoring. Should India develop UAV systems tailored to its unique security environment, it could export these technologies to meet the strategic and operational demands of regional partners. This would enhance India’s defense diplomacy while providing a counterbalance to China’s expanding footprint.

India’s Prospects in the Indo-Pacific Drone Market

The diminishing dominance of the U.S. in the Indo-Pacific drone market has opened a contested space that India is well-positioned to occupy strategically. By filling this gap, India can boost both its trade and geopolitical influence while simultaneously fulfilling its own defense needs. Despite challenges such as bureaucratic inefficiencies and a defense industry heavily reliant on the public sector, India can leverage its robust defense ties with Israel and its experience with joint ventures to strengthen domestic UAV production capabilities.

Rather than pursuing solely complete indigenous production, India could pursue technology-sharing partnerships with like-minded Indo-Pacific nations. This collaborative approach would accelerate the development of drone technologies and foster trust-based alliances in a region increasingly defined by strategic competition and polarization.

Conclusion

India’s capacity to develop and export UAVs tailored to regional needs offers a path to securing its own strategic objectives, countering China’s influence, and establishing itself as a pivotal defense partner in the Indo-Pacific. Through focused modernization, strategic diplomacy, and collaborative technology sharing, India can seize the emerging drone market opportunities and reinforce its standing in the evolving geopolitical landscape.