Context

China has initiated the construction of a large-scale hydropower project on the Yarlung Tsangpo River in Tibet, near the Indian border. Launched by Premier Li Qiang, the project has raised significant concerns in India due to its enormous scale, lack of transparency, potential ecological damage, and geopolitical ramifications. The absence of consultation with lower riparian countries like India and Bangladesh further exacerbates the issue.

Project Overview and Strategic Location

Cost and Scale

• The project is estimated to cost 1.2 trillion yuan (approximately US$167.8 billion).
• It includes the construction of five cascade hydropower plants in Medog County, situated just 30 km from India’s Arunachal Pradesh border.
• It is projected to generate 300 billion kWh annually, over three times the capacity of the Three Gorges Dam, currently the world''s largest hydropower facility (88.2 billion kWh).

Engineering Specifications

• The project involves drilling 4 to 6 tunnels, each approximately 20 km long, potentially diverting up to 50% of the river’s flow.
• The site lies in Seismic Zone V, near the Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis, making it geologically sensitive.

Environmental and Hydrological Concerns

Disruption of the Brahmaputra River System

• The project is likely to alter the river’s hydrology and reduce seasonal flow, especially during dry months.
• It threatens aquatic biodiversity, fisheries, sediment transport, and ecosystem services.
• Despite being labeled a run-of-the-river project, the inclusion of reservoir-like structures for the five cascade dams raises concerns about actual impacts.

Flood Risks

• Sudden water discharges, particularly during monsoon rains or seismic events, could trigger severe downstream flooding in India and Bangladesh.

Seismic Vulnerability

• The region is prone to earthquakes due to tectonic features like the Himalayan Frontal Thrust and Medog Fault.
• Citing the Neelum-Jhelum project failure in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, experts highlight serious structural safety concerns.

Diplomatic and Legal Dimensions

Lack of Riparian Cooperation

• China has historically withheld hydrological data and shown limited cooperation on transboundary water governance.
• Its past management of the Mekong River negatively affected Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos, setting an alarming precedent.
• Although three MoUs on water sharing were signed between India and China in 2013, they remain unimplemented.

International Water Law

• Neither India nor China is a signatory to the UN Convention (1997) on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses.
• Nonetheless, principles like "equitable and reasonable utilization" and "no significant harm" are accepted under customary international law.

Geopolitical Double Standards

• China is unlikely to accept similar upstream projects by other countries that affect its interests.
• India’s current approach, relying on quiet diplomacy, is viewed as inadequate.
• Experts advocate for a more assertive diplomatic and public position.

Strategic and Policy Recommendations for India

Diplomatic Measures

• Insist on full project disclosure, including seismic risk assessments and environmental impact reports.
• Urge temporary suspension of the project until India’s concerns are addressed through transparent consultations.

Domestic Infrastructure Response

• Develop flood management infrastructure in Arunachal Pradesh and Assam.
• Employ remote sensing and geospatial technologies for independent monitoring of hydrological changes.
• Reduce reliance on Chinese hydrological data by enhancing domestic data networks.

International Engagement

• Encourage involvement of civil society organizations and international forums.
• Elevate the issue in bilateral discussions and multilateral platforms to demonstrate India’s strategic concerns.

Conclusion

The Yarlung Tsangpo hydropower project poses significant ecological, hydrological, and strategic risks for India. It challenges regional transboundary water governance and has implications for national security and sovereign rights.

India must move beyond passive diplomatic approaches to a more proactive and strategic engagement, combining legal instruments, technical preparedness, and international collaboration to safeguard its ecological and geopolitical interests.